Outline of the console war

[TheSource]

Here is how I see the market evolving throughout this generation...this is an enormous post. Next Generation I. Americas - 2005 A. Xbox 360 launches one year before Wii and PS3. B. 360 is the 7th best selling hardware (behind PS2, GBA, PSP, DS, Xbox, GC) C. Over 600,000 are sold, with Call of Duty 2 selling near 1:1 with the system D. PS2 is the primary system for developers with DS, GBA, and PSP splitting portables II. Americas - 2006 A. Wii/PS3 launch. Through Nov 17, 360 has sold roughly 3.5 million in the Americas B. In November-December sales for the three consoles are: 1) 360 - 1.90 million sold 2) Wii - 1.25 million sold 3) PS3 - .75 million sold C. In 2006 sales go DS>PS2>360>GBA>PSP>Wii>GC>PS3>Xbox>PS1 D. Two next-gen games make it on the top 10 (not including Wii Sports) E. DS and PS2 dominate software and hardware sales III. Americas - 2007 (Jan-Feb NPD, plus predictions) A. Wii sales - 300,000 to 700,000 from January to October B. PS3 sales - 125,000 to 350,000 from January to October C. Xbox 360 sales - 175,000 to 550,000 from January to October D. Highest non-holiday months 1) Wii - Smash Brothers month, Galaxy month (assumes both released pre Nov 1) 2) PS3 - January, GTA month 3) 360 - September (GTA and Halo 3?) E. Holiday sales (Nov-December) 1) Xbox 360 - 2.5 million (800,000 Nov, 1.7 million Dec) 2) Nintendo Wii - 2.0 million (650,000 Nov, 1.35 million Dec) 3) Playstation 3 - 1.3 million (500,000 Nov, 800,000 Dec) F. Next Gen games to sell to 20%+ of userbase in Americas (500k to 5 million...): 360 - Halo 3, Mass Effect, Blue Dragon, Madden, Too Human, Bioshock, GTA, Assassin's Creed Wii - Galaxy, Brawl, DDR, GH3, My Sims, Wii Health, Brain Academy, Paper Mario, Pokemon, RE PS3 - GTA, Madden, Assassin's Creed, Metal Gear Solid 4, Devil May Cry 4, RE G. Hardware sales for the year: 1) DS>Wii>PSP>360>PS2>GBA>PS3>GC>Xbox H. Peaking into 2008: DS, PSP, 360 I. Dying into 2008: GBA, PS2 J. Dead as a doornail in 2008: GC, Xbox K. Rising into 2008: Wii L. Steady into 2008: PS3 IV. Americas 2008 A. Hardware: Wii>DS>360>PSP>PS3>PS2>GBA B. Wii gets within 2 million of 360 C. All three consoles reach 10 million sold in the Americas by end of the year V. Post 2008 A. 360 wins Americas, Wii comes in close 2nd, PS3 more distant third. B. LTD 360 - 30 million, Wii 28 million, PS3 21 million I. Japan 2005 A. 360 launches, but the country ignores it. B. Industry observers watch with fascination as the DS alone begins to beat Sony C. With the DS rising, and PS2 dying, developers begin to take note of changes D. With a year to take advantage of the chaos in transition 360 wants a niche. E. Hardware sales: DS>PSP>PS2>GBA>GC>360>Xbox>PS1 II Japan 2006 A. The DS turns into a monster, inhaling the support of Japanese developers. B. DS outsells all other consoles at least 4:1. C. With DS taking away its support, console market is stagnant until Nov/Dec D. Hardware sales: DS>PSP>PS2>Wii>PS3>GBA>360>GC>Xbox E. Wii outsells PS3 2:1. Wii is driven by two killer apps, PS3 seems to have zero F. Blue Dragon pushes 360 sales to near PS3 levels over the holidays G. With Wii at about 1 million at year end, developers begin supporting it more. H. 8 of the 11 games to sell 1 million copies are made by Nintendo, for the DS I. To the casual eye it seems Nintendo stole the industry back from Sony III Japan 2007 A. DS continues to have the unbridled support of Nintendo and now 3rd parties B. Until either PSP, Wii, or PS3 sales reach 5 million, developers support DS most. C. Both Wii and PSP hit 5 million in 2007, giving developers more options for $ D. PS3 does not hit 2 million in 2007. E. Games to sell over 1 million copies: 1) Dragon Quest IX (DS) 4,000,000 2) Big Brain Academy (Wii) 2,000,000 3) Wii Sports (Wii) 1,700,000 4) Super Smash Brothers Brawl (Wii) 1,600,000 5) Big Brain Training 2 (DS) 1,450,000 6) Wii Sports (Wii) - 1,400,000 7) Monster Hunter Freedom 2 (PSP) 1,350,000 8) Wii Health (Wii) - 1,300,000 9) Wii Play (Wii) 1,250,000 10) Wii Play (Wii) - 1,200,000 11) Super Paper Mario (Wii) 1,150,000 12) Super Mario Galaxy (Wii) 1,050,000 13) New Super Mario Brothers (DS) 1,000,000 F. Hardware sales: DS>Wii>PSP>PS3>PS2>360 (GC, Xbox, GBA irrelevant) G. Enormous DQIX sales send shockwaves through the industry resulting in: 1) Increased DS support by 3rd parties as Nintendo itself focuses on Wii 2) Square-Enix announcing more support for DS, PSP/Wii 3) Namco & Capcom focusing on the west for disliking the DS/Wii direction until... H. Capcom & Namco discover that their Microsoft products sell well, but PS3 products: 1) Don't have enough users to draw from 2) Are not dominant in any market, leading to eventual support of Wii for Jap $.. I. Nintendo and smaller developers (think Level 5) announce record profits 1) The pattern goes full cycle: 1983-1994 Nintendo ruled Japan 2) 1994-2005 Sony ruled Japan 3) 2006- Nintendo rules Japan... J. Heading into 2008... 1) Wii is rising, DS is rising, PS3 is rising 2) PSP is peaking, 360 is peaking 3) PS2 is dying, GC/GBA/Xbox are waaay dead IV. 2008 and on to the end of the generation... A. LTD Hardware: Wii - 20 million, PS3 - 7 million, 360 - 750,000 B. DS - 35 million, PSP - 10 million (5 million users own both) I. Others - 2005 A. 360 launches, selling best in the UK. Around 400,000 are sold in 2005. B. Supply constraints damage Microsoft's potential against the strength of the PS2 C. Many choose to wait until more compelling software arrives, or until their systems run out great new content...especially since many love simple games like Singstar on PS2 II. Others - 2006 A. PS3 is delayed, Wii sells 800,000 consoles in December. B. Nintendo and Microsoft are able to make significant inroads before PS3 launches C. PS2 finally begins to decline, with the DS starting to dominate as it has in Japan. D. The market is.. muddled, because some support Nintendo, Sony, Microsoft most III. Others - 2007 A. Hardware: DS>Wii>PSP>PS3>360>PS2>GBA>GC>Xbox B. Nintendo and Sony knock down Microsoft's majority quickly 1) With strong pushes, the market splits in thirds by December... 2) Nintendo wins the holiday 3) However, for most of the year Sony has the most supply, so they make inroads IV. 2008 A. Nintendo passes Microsoft midyear. B. Sony catches, but never passes Microsoft at the end of the year, winning x-mas... V Post 08' A. LTD - Wii - 18 million, PS3 - 16 million, 360 - 15 million Final LTD Worldwide: Wii - 66 million (estimated range: 55-75 million) 360 - 46 million (estimated range: 35-55 million) PS3 - 44 million (estimated range: 30-50 million)