Yup, I'm right.

http://paidcontent.org/article/419-leaked-documents-shed-light-on-microsofts-xbox-live-subscriber-stats/

That figure you quoted, but that I can't find cited anywhere (~15m), is probably an approximate total of Xbox Live accounts. The last number I could find said 10m, but that was early 2008, so it's surely higher by now. According to the leaked documents, 60% of Xbox live users in the US and 56% of Xbox live users abroad have paid accounts. You went wrong by assuming every Xbox Live user has a paid account.

I asked myself the same question: "Why the hell do I pay for online gaming?".
I bought the 360 instead of a PS3 in 2008 when the price difference was €130. Both systems had the same amount of exclusives, so the lower price gave me the reason to buy the 360 instead of a PS3. But now, after almost two years I paid €66 for live. So in 4 years time I would have paid the same as the PS3, and in the end my 360 will be more expensive than when I bhought a PS3. So for gold members, the 360 is actually more expensive.
Back on-topic: More and more of my friends are getting Xbox 360's, so we can play online together. I was actually thinking of selling the 360 and buying the ps3, but.... then I can't play online with my friends anymore.... I'm a bit "stuck" now.
When the next-gen arrives and PSN still is free in the future and Live is still a paid service, I'll definitely go for the "cheaper" PS4.

The most annoying thing about these tired, pointless threads comparing the merits of one system's online service to the other, is usually the person writing them. How many more shortsighted, sanctimonious people are gonna take the time to jot down biased opinion while clumisly trying to disguise their posts as something relevant and factual?
Unfortunately, allot.
So, I'd like to ask the OP a question or two.

..Why do you care what other people spend their money on?
..Have you ever paid for tickets to see a baseball, basketball or football game?
..Have you 'honestly' taken the time necassary to discern the difference between Live and PSN in order to reach an EDUCATED opinion, or, as I suspect, are just firing from the hip?
..Do you have any clue for the vagaries of supply and demand, what the market will bear, capitalism?

I'm not a Sony basher by any stretch, but the reality is this; since day one, Sony's not offered a single, innovative idea to enrich the world of video games and video game players. Not one. (Please don't try and argue the fact) In this current generation they have followed Microsoft every step of the way, emulating near every facet of Micosoft's gameplan save one; paid subscription based gaming. If you don't think the millions Microsoft's reaped over the years because of Live isn't something Sony is sorely aware of and currently gearing towards, than all those Gold subscribers you sophomorically insulted aren't the ones you should be calling stupid.
$50 a year. Yeah. But again, have you really taken the time to see the difference between the two? If not, than you should, because it's huge... I can SEE what my 50 bucks a year does, if you can't, then I'd like to refer you one more time to those you've labeled stupid and suggest a possible change in target.

The worst thing an uneducated person can do is open their mouth, unfortunately, they often don't know any better.