I believe who ever has capitalized on the most fickle market will lose the next generation. Most people would automatically assume that means nintendo, however I am not so sure that the Blue Ocean is as Fickle as the Red Ocean. Next generation hardware will be much more comparative, even if Sony and Microsoft has slighlt better hardware setups (Evidenced by the major improvements in processors coming from reducing size, increasing energy efficiency, etc.) I don't think the graphical difference will be as notable as the jump from Ps2 - Ps3. Rather I believe the Increase will be more akin to a xbox360 => Ps3 level of graphical difference.
Though to be honest I don't even think the current videogame market is properly capitalized. but I do think Microsoft has the best chance of winning the next generation.

Personally, I believe Sony has been truly out of touch with the mass market since the inception of the walkman. As weird as this may sound (due to my Nintendo fanboyism) I believe Microsoft, unfortunately, has the best ability to present its product to the masses and enough consumer branded loyalty from the general public.

Microsoft is quite possibly the only hardware developer that will continue to sell their product at a loss at the start of the hardware cycle(because they can), and will probably have the leanest and most efficient hardware setup. I don't believe they will be first to market again, rather I think they will push to market at the same time Sony does. Their marketing muscle should be adequately placed to outpace Sony in Europe and the Americas. (I don't believe they will make a dent in Japan over the next generation).

Nintendo's strength in my eyes lie in the charm behind their original IP's, and their incredible customer support and service, which is why I see it hard for most casuals to switch from a Nintendo branded product for the next generation. Mario is more recognizable and amiable to the average consumer than Microsoft's Master Cheif and Sony's ? (who would be the Sony mascot? Nathan Drake?) combined. Shit, he is more recognizable than Mickey Mouse worldwide, I can't think of one character on television or in the entertainment industry more recognized than him.

Ronaldo.

Sony's mascot is supposed to be Sack Boy.

And I believe the hardware increase will be pretty bug as well, if the Power7 rumor is true can at least expect a great jump in hardware from ps3 to ps4. What I find interesting about ms is that they are gainning their public each gen, and are getting appeal in japanese market, maybe in the next-next gen the xbox brand may be a true competitor for PS5 and next-next Nintendo Console.

Maybe.

I wager it will all be about price.

If Apple decide to join, Ninty can say "Bye bye!" to a big chunk of that casual market. They would do well.
If Ninty keep the "Wii" name, they will do well.
If MS' Natal tech takes off, they will do well.
If Sony release an affordable machine, they will do well.

It's hard to say what will happen...

I am pretty sure ronaldo is not a character but rather a celebrity, otherwise President Obama would be one of the most popular figures worldwide (accodring to recent surveys he is more well known than Jesus).