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Maybe.

I wager it will all be about price.

If Apple decide to join, Ninty can say "Bye bye!" to a big chunk of that casual market. They would do well.
If Ninty keep the "Wii" name, they will do well.
If MS' Natal tech takes off, they will do well.
If Sony release an affordable machine, they will do well.

It's hard to say what will happen...