Basing myself on VGChartz numbers ( shipped numbers should not be that far off)..

April 5th 2009 -> November 21st 2009 : 9.01 million units.

Now lets look at the rest of the year :

Last year we had : November 23rd 2008 ->April 4th 2009 : 11.65 millions units.

So if for the rest of the year the Wii performs exactly like last year we get a total 20.65 million units sold and Nintendo  does reach its target.

However we have Black Friday in the US that is off 30% compared to last year so matching 2008 number isn't looking so good and Nintendo does not have a lot of margin ( they can be 10% off the rest of the year but not a lot more)..

Anyway based on this I am now thinking they won't actually ship more than 19 million units.

I could see that.

Well it is certainly possible but considering you base it off one week of sales with no back trends or even current shipment data, it's hard to believe that with what you provide a solid argument is made.

But it is possible that Ninty may only ship 19 million and not hit their 20 million target.

9.01 million, plus 1.05 million this week (625K NA, 350K Others, 30K japan) means 10.06 million, over the next 5 weeks it'll probably sell about 5-7 million, meaning it'll have 13 weeks to sell anywhere from 4.94-2.94 million

That means an average sales of 231-385K a week after the holidays

so yeah it could hit its 20 million shipment forecast

20 million Wiis will be shipped for 2009. 25 million Wiis were shipped for 2008.
Wii will have sold 5 million less than 2009. 20% fewer Wiis sold in 2009 than 2008

That is 1.005 million by the way.

^Ah thank you, so its slightly off, but not enough to affect my point

We'll see. Next week is the best single-week software push Wii has had in ages in Japan and almost every relevant American videogame retailer - Walmart, Best Buy, Target, and Toys R US is offering some kind of temporary giftcard deal to get people to buy Wiis at their store in the next week (11-29 to 12-5, 12-6 on at Walmart). So for the weeks these deals are in place, you can get Wii Sports, Wii, and NSMB Wii for $230-$250 - about $100 less than last year.

Strictly speaking, 19 million is pretty damn close to 20 million anyway.

It's very possible, I admit.

Ah well.

I'm not really basing myself on one week.

If you look at the data we have so far for November the Wii is tracking lower than 2008 in those weeks, Black Friday data just tells us the situation didn't improve this week( which was NSMBWii second week by the way, there's no huge software still to be released for the Wii in the West in the next 4 weeks..)

If so far it is tracking lower , and seeing how huge Q1 2009 was, it is going to be hard to match those numbers...