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Forums - Microsoft Discussion - What Natal Really Is!

Procrastinato said:
JaggedSac said:
Procrastinato said:
N.Genckel said:
It'll be MAX 99$. Might even go as low as 49$, if MS are seriously serious about getting this thing out to the public.

(~50% adoption) 20 million * $150 loss per unit (approx $199.99 cost-of-goods)== 3 billion USD lost.

(~50% adoption) 20 million * $50 loss per unit (approx $99.99 cost-of-goods) == 1 billion USD lost.

 

I don't think it'll be $49.99..

Where did you get the cost of this being $200?

I gave two examples, only one of which had the cost at $200.  I gave what I felt what was a "low end" and a "high end" cost, to illustrate that losses per unit, if you sell a bunch, are bad, bad news, at almost any level.

At even $10 lost per unit, and if MS is only going for ~25% adoption (which is about 10m by the time Natal launches), that's still a $100M loss.  I'm trying to dispel the silly idea that Natal will be sold at a loss, in order to make it a major factor in the 360 envrionment.  It can't be, really, unless the proceeds from the software are going to be *really* lucrative.

With a devoted processor fast enough to process a high-rez stereo image and a depth image at 60 Hz, a depth camera (which are freaking expensive, today), memory, etc., Natal is going to be expensive.  There's no getting around it.  A 3 GHz Pentium IV can process a single 8-bit 640x480 image for edge data at about 180 Hz, in a certain academic app I won't name.  Even if we say the Natal is based only upon standard edge detection algorithms, and doesn't do anything "special" (like face detection, which is outrageously expensive, or recognition of more than about two hands at once), that's basically a full 3 GHz CPU, plus a good 8 megs of fast, fast memory.  Sure they could create custom, specialized (read: more expensive) processing components to do this... but then they aren't going to be mass-produced and they just aren't going to be cheap, especially when combined with the camera costs.  

$50 won't cut it -- especially not with the US economy as it is, and will be in 2010.  It'll cost at least $80, if not $100 or more, and it won't be sold for a loss.  No matter how cool Natal actually turns out to be... it won't be cheap.

I don't see any cheap accessory from MS.



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monlosez said:
Procrastinato said:
JaggedSac said:
Procrastinato said:
N.Genckel said:
It'll be MAX 99$. Might even go as low as 49$, if MS are seriously serious about getting this thing out to the public.

(~50% adoption) 20 million * $150 loss per unit (approx $199.99 cost-of-goods)== 3 billion USD lost.

(~50% adoption) 20 million * $50 loss per unit (approx $99.99 cost-of-goods) == 1 billion USD lost.

 

I don't think it'll be $49.99..

Where did you get the cost of this being $200?

I gave two examples, only one of which had the cost at $200.  I gave what I felt what was a "low end" and a "high end" cost, to illustrate that losses per unit, if you sell a bunch, are bad, bad news, at almost any level.

At even $10 lost per unit, and if MS is only going for ~25% adoption (which is about 10m by the time Natal launches), that's still a $100M loss.  I'm trying to dispel the silly idea that Natal will be sold at a loss, in order to make it a major factor in the 360 envrionment.  It can't be, really, unless the proceeds from the software are going to be *really* lucrative.

With a devoted processor fast enough to process a high-rez stereo image and a depth image at 60 Hz, a depth camera (which are freaking expensive, today), memory, etc., Natal is going to be expensive.  There's no getting around it.  A 3 GHz Pentium IV can process a single 8-bit 640x480 image for edge data at about 180 Hz, in a certain academic app I won't name.  Even if we say the Natal is based only upon standard edge detection algorithms, and doesn't do anything "special" (like face detection, which is outrageously expensive, or recognition of more than about two hands at once), that's basically a full 3 GHz CPU, plus a good 8 megs of fast, fast memory.  Sure they could create custom, specialized (read: more expensive) processing components to do this... but then they aren't going to be mass-produced and they just aren't going to be cheap, especially when combined with the camera costs.  

$50 won't cut it -- especially not with the US economy as it is, and will be in 2010.  It'll cost at least $80, if not $100 or more, and it won't be sold for a loss.  No matter how cool Natal actually turns out to be... it won't be cheap.

I don't see any cheap accessory from MS.

Exactly.  They charge you $100 for a HDD.

Anyone who thinks Natal will be cheap is suggesting that MS is going to do a big, big turnaround in what has been their pricing strategy thusfar.

$200 actually sounds pretty darn accurate, to be honest.  The cost of goods will be at least $100, I think.  Depth cameras are huge and expensive, and shrinking one down just isn't going to be that cheap.



 

Procrastinato said:
JaggedSac said:
Procrastinato said:
N.Genckel said:
It'll be MAX 99$. Might even go as low as 49$, if MS are seriously serious about getting this thing out to the public.

(~50% adoption) 20 million * $150 loss per unit (approx $199.99 cost-of-goods)== 3 billion USD lost.

(~50% adoption) 20 million * $50 loss per unit (approx $99.99 cost-of-goods) == 1 billion USD lost.

 

I don't think it'll be $49.99..

Where did you get the cost of this being $200?

I gave two examples, only one of which had the cost at $200.  I gave what I felt what was a "low end" and a "high end" cost, to illustrate that losses per unit, if you sell a bunch, are bad, bad news, at almost any level.

At even $10 lost per unit, and if MS is only going for ~25% adoption (which is about 10m by the time Natal launches), that's still a $100M loss.  I'm trying to dispel the silly idea that Natal will be sold at a loss, in order to make it a major factor in the 360 envrionment.  It can't be, really, unless the proceeds from the software are going to be *really* lucrative.

With a devoted processor fast enough to process a high-rez stereo image and a depth image at 60 Hz, a depth camera (which are freaking expensive, today), memory, etc., Natal is going to be expensive.  There's no getting around it.  A 3 GHz Pentium IV can process a single 8-bit 640x480 image for edge data at about 180 Hz, in a certain academic app I won't name.  Even if we say the Natal is based only upon standard edge detection algorithms, and doesn't do anything "special" (like face detection, which is outrageously expensive, or recognition of more than about two hands at once), that's basically a full 3 GHz CPU, plus a good 8 megs of fast, fast memory.  Sure they could create custom, specialized (read: more expensive) processing components to do this... but then they aren't going to be mass-produced and they just aren't going to be cheap, especially when combined with the camera costs.  

$50 won't cut it -- especially not with the US economy as it is, and will be in 2010.  It'll cost at least $80, if not $100 or more, and it won't be sold for a loss.  No matter how cool Natal actually turns out to be... it won't be cheap.

It will process at 30Hz I believe has been said.  As for hardware, there are already chips that specialize in performing the convolutions used for edge detection.  This is obviously going to be faster than doing it with a standard CPU, even when using the best algorithms.  I think they are going to have some for of these specialized hardware, and I think it will not be as expensive to produce these chips as you think.  Also, it processes 640x480 in depth, not sure I would consider that high-rez.  Doesn't need to be really.

 

Oh and the Z-Cam guys were talking about going to market with their camera for $50 - $75 before being purchased by MS.



JaggedSac said:

It will process at 30Hz I believe has been said.  As for hardware, there are already chips that specialize in performing the convolutions used for edge detection.  This is obviously going to be faster than doing it with a standard CPU, even when using the best algorithms.  I think they are going to have some for of these specialized hardware, and I think it will not be as expensive to produce these chips as you think.  Also, it processes 640x480 in depth, not sure I would consider that high-rez.  Doesn't need to be really.

 

Oh and the Z-Cam guys were talking about going to market with their camera for $50 - $75 before being purchased by MS.

30Hz?  Wow I hope not.  That will yield some pretty crude data for gesture recognition.  I bet its at least 50 Hz, if not 60.

The z-Cam relied upon a processor/memory in the device it was attached to, I believe, so $50-$75 sounds about right... being just a camera.



 

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=83706

It process each 48 point skeleton(up to 4) at 30fps. Or 30 Hz.

They are aiming for 100ms latency, which should be fine. And as I said before, processors specially designed for image processing(especially for the costly matrix convolutions) have been around for quite awhile now. A retail cost of around $80 - $100 is looking most likely.



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If MS sells their wireless adapter for $100 how is the high tech Natal going to be cheaper?

Doesn't sound like MS unless they sell it for a loss to get a big userbase.



If MS sells their wireless adapter for $100 how is the high tech Natal going to be cheaper?

Doesn't sound like MS unless they sell it for a loss to get a big userbase.

EDIT: Sorry it double posted.



you forget that the forthcoming N wireless adapter is going to be $100 the current wireless adapter is going to move down in price. And let's not forget, Natal is something they want to get into the market, they will not gouge the consumers on this one.



Past Avatar picture!!!

Don't forget your helmet there, Master Chief!

Natal is short for Natlaya from Metal Gear Solid. This means MGS4 is coming to Xbox 360!



d21lewis said:
Natal is short for Natlaya from Metal Gear Solid. This means MGS4 is coming to Xbox 360!

oh no u didn't



 

You wanna have your opinion, then you have to respect different opinions as well.