Often on these forums you will read these comments

1) "Console x has y times the userbase as console z, so game A should sell y times as much on that console"

2) "Console x has y times the userbase it did when game A's predecessor came out, thus game x will sell y times as much as its predecessor"

I don't think either of these are particularly valid

The higher userbase a console has, the more different games are released for it. This is true both for comparing two different consoles (ie Wii vs PS3) or comparing one console across multiple time periods. When the PSWii60 had a small userbase, there were more games released on the PS2 and xbox, thus less development time spared for the 7th gen consoles. If a console has twice the userbase, but gets twice as many games/year, then sales will be the same on both consoles. (I'm not trying to claim that number of game releases will be exactly proportional to userbase btw, this was a simplification)

Additionally, in all previous generations, the console with the highest userbase has had a low attach ratio. GC and xbox had higher than the PS2, 360 has higher than Wii etc. This appears to be because the most hardcore gamers buy the console earlier, and then those who don't spend their whole lives on gaming forums and buy lots of games flock to whichever console gets the most support.

Thoughts?

It should in the long run...

btw console with the highest userbase - PS2 and Wii have/had the most casual gamers. which means less sales, but in the long run, those platforms have huge legs.

But when comparing PS3 and 360 , userbase should have an impact.

well most likely the system with the biggest install base will have the best sales when it comes to a multiplat game. though if the fanbase of the the smaller install based system is bigger that the other, then you could see a change. also things like exclusive bundles, add-on content, time/exclusive DLC can also play a factor on how the game sells on  the systems of choice

PS3 has 601 games in the VGChartz database, 360 has 748. Although the 360 has been around longer I suppose.

Hang on a sec. Releases this year only
360: 11+49+63+50+22+24+35+28+19+32+39+11
=383

PS3: 11+47+58+44+14+22+33+25+17+35+33+12
=351

So the 360 does have more game releases this year (not by much, but still must be considered), despite the fact that Sony has a much larger 1st party than MS. This will mitigate the effect of higher userbase slightly

Yes, the more people that have the console the more potential consumers

yea it does make a difference but surprisingly not by much. on alot of multiplat games the gap is really quite small between ps3 and 360. alot of people say its cause of failed 360's. lol funny how its supposed to be the other way round with the "only used as a blu ray player"

yea it does make a difference but surprisingly not by much. on alot of multiplat games the gap is really quite small between ps3 and 360. alot of people say its cause of failed 360's. lol funny how its supposed to be the other way round with the "only used as a blu ray player"

No not really but kinda.

GT3 sold more on a smaller user base then GT4 did on one twice as large, go figure.

God of war3 will sale same numbers on PS3 30ish million user base as GOW or GOW2 did on PS2s +100 million one.

It really depends too. There is a lot 360 owners who modded their system so they play burnt games. That right there take away some software sales too.

But that's just it, they're just 'potential' customers.  The factors to make them 'buyers' are what's in question here.  And that differs between region, genre and even platform.

In Japan, gamers seem to focus on handhelds and name brands.  They jump on games that they can identify, such as the next sequel to a popular RPG series or Anime title.

In the west however, its mostly about marketing and genre.  People will buy a new IP, as long as you saturate TV, magazines and the internet with ads for months ahead of time with the games image and hype it to the right market (aka, 'one of the best FPS/Action/sports games of the year').

Being the higher userbase doesn't really increase much in my opinion.  I mean, if that was the case, we'd see Wii and DS titles dominating everything.  Instead, we're seeing a crazy gen with third parties trying to focus on the HD systems and Japan trying to focus on the handhelds.  Nobody is really going for the 'biggest' piece of the pie...cuz that's the DS and Wii.