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Forums - Sales - Iwata: Wii Production at 1.8 million per month

bdbdbd on 27 October 2007
Lingyis said:
Sqrl said:
 

 

@Lingyis, not sure but its very likely that they are mostly interested in the profits from selling the hardware initially. They may actually have a plan to help curb piracy but I would be beyond shocked if they were ever able to actually fully stop it. Once you get to understand some basic truths about computers you realise that stuff like piracy isn't something you can stop with a built in protection alone.


 That's why I said MMOs

For whatever reason, the Chinese absolutely LOVE MMOs.  There are at least 5 major online gaming companies in China, a few of which are already public companies.  Giant Interactive, the #5, is going IPO in the next few weeks: 

http://www.forbes.com/facesscan/2007/10/15/giant-interactive-ztonline-face-markets-cx_jc_1015autofacescan01.html

 Apparently, people are very much willing to pay for MMOs, but not standalone games.  Like you suggested, there's  no stopping pirating, especially when we're talking about the Chinese.  So Nintendo can only take money in an area where they would gladly hand them over.

 I don't know what fun MMO's that only the Wii could provide.  MMO's are addictive and sedentary... waggle kind of makes you tired and that actually reduces the addictive factor.

Very interesting. 


Reminds me of rumors considering Animal Crossing. Basically they could make a lock of somekind, so you couldn't play without registering online, but it would be only a matter of weeks, before someone would crack it. So i have to agree with ChichiriMuyo. But, it could be possible to develope some content online, which would cost you money and would be a "must have" to everyone who owns the game.

Ei Kiinasti.

Eikä Japanisti.

Vaan pannaan jalalla koreasti.

 

Nintendo games sell only on Nintendo system.

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Sqrl on 27 October 2007

@Lingsyis,

I definitely agree MMOs are the only proven way to fight piracy in China, but I also think there are other ways to do it and I think ChichiMuyo has hit on one of them.

Hardware is the thing that is very difficult to pirate and extremely hard to get away with because it requires extremely large operations which are usually easy to track and shut down. The result is that games connected with hardware ala Wii Sports and Wii Fit are in fact very difficult to pirate. So in that regard I definitely agree that they can make some huge money in China on those products.

I am curious though if, assuming the strategy pans out, they will expand on it and begin to plan new titles that focus more on the hardware aspect of the games.

As a bit of speculation, we could see a situation where Nintendo is absolutely flush with cash (beyond what they have now) if China plays out well for them. I mean they could seriously have crazy sums of money that would make Bill Gates envious. What they would do with that kind of money could be an even more interesting question.
To Each Man, Responsibility
Lingyis on 27 October 2007
bdbdbd said:
Lingyis said:
Sqrl said:
 

 

@Lingyis, not sure but its very likely that they are mostly interested in the profits from selling the hardware initially. They may actually have a plan to help curb piracy but I would be beyond shocked if they were ever able to actually fully stop it. Once you get to understand some basic truths about computers you realise that stuff like piracy isn't something you can stop with a built in protection alone.


That's why I said MMOs

For whatever reason, the Chinese absolutely LOVE MMOs. There are at least 5 major online gaming companies in China, a few of which are already public companies. Giant Interactive, the #5, is going IPO in the next few weeks:

http://www.forbes.com/facesscan/2007/10/15/giant-interactive-ztonline-face-markets-cx_jc_1015autofacescan01.html

Apparently, people are very much willing to pay for MMOs, but not standalone games. Like you suggested, there's no stopping pirating, especially when we're talking about the Chinese. So Nintendo can only take money in an area where they would gladly hand them over.

I don't know what fun MMO's that only the Wii could provide. MMO's are addictive and sedentary... waggle kind of makes you tired and that actually reduces the addictive factor.

Very interesting.


 

Reminds me of rumors considering Animal Crossing. Basically they could make a lock of somekind, so you couldn't play without registering online, but it would be only a matter of weeks, before someone would crack it. So i have to agree with ChichiriMuyo. But, it could be possible to develope some content online, which would cost you money and would be a "must have" to everyone who owns the game.

 i think it goes beyond cracking--MMO revenue comes from purchasing game items from the gaming operator.  it's still crackable, but if it's easy and unpatchable MMOs wouldn't be so profitable in china.

 Yeah, Nintendo would surely make money on hardware, like Wii and WiiFit.  that'll be an interesting strategy.  lower margins, of course, but of course still profitable, and bodes well for the future.

 



the Wii is an epidemic.

Faxanadu on 27 October 2007

now how to track those chinese sales.....



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elprincipe on 27 October 2007
johnlucas said:
elprincipe said:
So if they are producing 1.8 million per month and sold 1.3 million per month the last three months, that makes 500,000 stockpiled per month. If we assume they have been doing this for the past four months and will continue for October, they have an additional 2.5 million stockpiled. Therefore, 1.8 million available for November, then 4.3 million for December.

So take end of September sales (13.2 million) plus October (1.3 million) plus November (1.8 million) plus December (4.3 million) and we arrive at 20.6 million in sales by the end of December. Not too shabby.

And they called me crazy. Hahahahahahahaha!

John Lucas


Oh John, John, what's so crazy about it? I am simply musing with the numbers provided. Of course, this relies on quite a few assumptions, most important of which would be that they have been stockpiling for months. Since we are not Nintendo, we don't know how many they've been holding back (perhaps they just increased production this month?). But we do know (a) how many have been shipped (13.2 million) at the end of September; (b) how many sold worldwide per month in July/August/September (3.9 million, or 1.3 million per month); and ( c ) how many are now being produced per month (1.8 million).

If my assumptions are correct (a big IF to be sure), the numbers come out how I have calculated above. Interesting scenario, huh? But realize I'm not even predicting this, just musing that IF they have been holding back those kinds of numbers, this COULD happen. So hahaha yourself! :P



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alpha_dk on 27 October 2007
elprincipe said:
johnlucas said:
elprincipe said:
So if they are producing 1.8 million per month and sold 1.3 million per month the last three months, that makes 500,000 stockpiled per month. If we assume they have been doing this for the past four months and will continue for October, they have an additional 2.5 million stockpiled. Therefore, 1.8 million available for November, then 4.3 million for December.

So take end of September sales (13.2 million) plus October (1.3 million) plus November (1.8 million) plus December (4.3 million) and we arrive at 20.6 million in sales by the end of December. Not too shabby.

And they called me crazy. Hahahahahahahaha!

John Lucas


Oh John, John, what's so crazy about it? I am simply musing with the numbers provided. Of course, this relies on quite a few assumptions, most important of which would be that they have been stockpiling for months. Since we are not Nintendo, we don't know how many they've been holding back (perhaps they just increased production this month?). But we do know (a) how many have been shipped (13.2 million) at the end of September; (b) how many sold worldwide per month in July/August/September (3.9 million, or 1.3 million per month); and ( c ) how many are now being produced per month (1.8 million).

If my assumptions are correct (a big IF to be sure), the numbers come out how I have calculated above. Interesting scenario, huh? But realize I'm not even predicting this, just musing that IF they have been holding back those kinds of numbers, this COULD happen. So hahaha yourself! :P

From John Lucas' sig:

-------- 

AT VERY LEAST 20 Million worldwide Wii sales by December 31, 2007 at 11:59:59.9 PM (the end of the calendar year not fiscal year). MAX end-year total: 24 Million worldwide. Believe it.

 --------

And knowing how other people responded to his estimates way back when, he was probably ridiculed for that. So now that you are using your data and confirming, he is just gloating a little bit.



Please, PLEASE do NOT feed the trolls.
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--Predictions--
1) WiiFit will outsell the pokemans.
  Current Status: 2009.01.10 70k till PKMN Yellow (Passed: Emerald, Crystal, FR/LG)

Sqrl on 28 October 2007

 
@elprincipe,

 

John was most definitely musing at the fact that more and more people are coming around to his belief now, yourself included.  He made these predictions months ago and was of course laughed at and repeatedly informed of how crazy he was.  Fast forward to today and things are a lot different and very few people saw it coming.

So whether you like the man or hate him you have to give him credit.  He makes some pretty crazy predictions and often times they come true...and usually when they don't he was very close anyways...in any case he always comes back to take his licks when he gets one wrong which is more than you can say for most folks. 
To Each Man, Responsibility
elprincipe on 28 October 2007
Sqrl said:


@elprincipe,

 

John was most definitely musing at the fact that more and more people are coming around to his belief now, yourself included. He made these predictions months ago and was of course laughed at and repeatedly informed of how crazy he was. Fast forward to today and things are a lot different and very few people saw it coming.

So whether you like the man or hate him you have to give him credit. He makes some pretty crazy predictions and often times they come true...and usually when they don't he was very close anyways...in any case he always comes back to take his licks when he gets one wrong which is more than you can say for most folks.


Ah, thanks for clearing that up.  I was definitely misreading the tone of what he wrote I think!

I'm not sure I've come around to his belief, but with this new 1.8m/month announcement that certainly seems in the realm of possibility. So I do give him credit for disregarding the naysayers ("they aren't getting production up fast enough" seems to be a pretty ridiculous position at this point), but I would probably still be more inclined myself to predict 18-19 million.



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Sqrl on 29 October 2007

Fair enough, sorry if I mischaracterized your position.

With that said, I don't think very many people (any?) supported his prediction when he made it, myself included. So I have to agree with you that disregarding the naysayers is something John does well.

It is yet to be seen if this one comes true or not obviously, but I am fairly confident that if it doesn't he will be the first one to make a thread letting everyone know about it (as he has done in the past even when people had completely forgotten he made the prediction) and for that alone I have a lot of respect for the guy. His reasoning isn't always in line with my own, but I do enjoy reading his predictions.
To Each Man, Responsibility