Well, considering over 70% of the 360 MW2 sales come from USA (just check sales of any FPS on 360, even MW1) and 60-70% of the NSMBW sales is going to be outside USA, USA presales tells very little of the worldwide sales.  In both europe and Japan NSMBW is going to smash MW2. For example in Japan 360 MW2 might not even reach 100k while NSMBW probably sells 3-4 million. So even if MW2 would outsell NMSBW 2:1 in USA, it might not be enough to outsell NSMBW worldwide. In USA MW2 is probably going to sell more but not worldwide.

MW2 will beat NSMBWii first week, but i don't see MW2 beating NSMBWii worldwide lifetime.. mario is just immortal, and whats with the comparison anyway?

Overall lifetime sales NSMB will beat Modern Warfare 2 for the 360. Sure modern warfare 2 will open better but lets not forget the NSMB for the DS is a few weeks shy of selling 20 million copies.

All consoles combined Modern Warfare 2 has a good chance of outselling NSMB Wii lifetime sales but 360 alone. NO

love the new Zelda trailer! i was not going to buy it but now i am as it look really fun. why the hell do people not like NSMB? it will be awesome!! i guess people just do not like it when Wii owners get the good stuff, if it was on PS360 it would have been hyped through the roof :P

You're assuming most people who will buy Mario are bothering to preorder, I'm not, I'm just going to wander into a store on release day and pick it up

Of course he wouldnt talk down MW2 because he's hoping there'll be a MW2 Reflex for the Wii ^___^

Some earlier games released in this time period, for perspective:

http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=America&game1=Super+Mario+Galaxy+-+Wii&reg2=America&game2=Call+of+Duty+4:+Modern+Warfare+-+X360&reg3=America&game3=Call+of+Duty:+World+at+War+-+X360&weeks=11

Obviously Modern Warfare 2 will see higher frontloaded sales than its predecessors, though I'm sure NSMB Wii will do far better than Galaxy, as well. Still, we're probably talking near 5mil in 11 weeks. It'd essentially need to open like Brawl/MK (1mil+ week one), on top of its (expected) large holiday boost.

By January, the sales of MW2 should have dropped off while NSMB will likely still be going strong, which is why Reggie wanted the Jan NPD as well

modern warfare 2 will crush it step on it keep stepping on it and step on it again all the way til january...with the ps3 price cut and already established franchise on the 360 u cud expect both consoles to do very well upcoming holiday but no doubt mario will sell all the way to next year and will most likely take over sooner or later

I'd be shocked if that didn't happen. Pre-orders don't really tell us much in this case: Modern Warfare's pre-orders will be a large chunk of its total sales this year, while Mario's preorders will make up a much smaller percentage of its total.