From the begining of October to December 31, The 360 sold 3.2 milliion consoles last holiday.  This was in the face of two competing console launches albeit not globally.  Can the the 360 do that same number this year?

I don't see any reason for the 360 to sell LESS this year given the amazing fall lineup of games.  That said, the new PS3 will be competing for sales at its new price point with game actually available this year and hardware availability on a global basis.

Will the PS3 possibly steal some next-gen hardware sales from Microsoft this holiday?  If the 360 was to simply do what it did last year and the PS3 were to even sell something in the ballpark, the jump in hardware sold in terms of dollars would be astronomical.  Something has to give.  Here is the PS3 last holiday (granted no euro/others) but I suspect we will see a significant increase in overall hardware but inevitably, some dollars will go to the PS3 that would have otherwise bought a 360 since the price differential won't be there after Nov 2 any more.  Thoughts?

Global4 PS3

There will be more Wiis avaliable, which will all sell out inevitably. If you look at last years graph, the 360 was higher than the wii. The chances are, worldwide, the Wii will outsell the 360 and PS3 in a big way

I'm a school teacher and I hear so many students talking about xbox 360 and halo 3 who doesn't have the console yet. Xbox will definitely sell more this holiday season than last year.
PS3 is a disappointment. Last year, there were a lot of debates about which console is better, but not this year. If kids want xbox360 for Christmas, they will get it.

Munkeh, I don't think he's asking if the Wii will, or won't outsell the X360. He's asking if the X360 will outsell itself vs. last year.

And my response would be: yes, absolutely. The Xbox 360 has tracked a bit better this year worldwide than last year thus far:

Japan: 97.2% YOY increase (and a much stronger lineup/better trending in Oct)
USA: 13.8% YOY increase (vast majority being within the past 2 months)
PAL: 8.6% YOY increase (same)

So if these numbers held in lockstep until the end of December, we should see total sales being for the EOY:

Japan: 386,512 units (selling another 228,015 units from now till Dec 31st)
USA: 5,062,935 units (selling another 2,338,780 units from now till Dec 31st)
PAL: 2,228,455 units (selling another 934,428 units from now till Dec 31st)

So, if all trends continued exactly (which IMO, I think the % increases will grow due to the price cut and continued strong software lineup), YOY sales will be 7,677,902 units, with 3,501,223 units coming from Oct 28th to Dec 31st. So yes, I think it'll beat it decently (mind you, your 3.2m number comes from 2-3 weeks ago).

Therefore, I do believe that the X360 will sell around 3.5m to 4.25m between now and Dec 31st. I don't think the competitors will hurt the X360, as we've seen that sales have increased vs. last year in every single territory, despite massive Wii sales, and a competitive Sony in PAL territories.

Over November and December, 360 will do at least 2.5 million in NA alone, and going by past percentages probably another 1.2 million or so everywhere else. I think 4 million worldwide from now until the end of the year is a likely target and it could even push 5 million.

If Nintendo can't keep supplies long in the summer how do they plan to do it suring the Holiday Season? They would have to be sitting on millions which wouldn't be a smart move either.

 What I was trying to say is that Wii sales will detract from 360 sales. I think that many people who could not get Wiis may have just got 360s instead

Nope, unlikely.

Well

PS3's FIRST XMAS in EU

n FIRST XMAS not being Supply constrained

so we'll see

@darthdevidem: the PS3 does actually seem to be doing well in Europe, if you look at others sales figures for this year, PS3 has constantly outsold the 360 in Europe. I would expect large sales in Europe