Munkeh, I don't think he's asking if the Wii will, or won't outsell the X360. He's asking if the X360 will outsell itself vs. last year.
And my response would be: yes, absolutely. The Xbox 360 has tracked a bit better this year worldwide than last year thus far:
Japan: 97.2% YOY increase (and a much stronger lineup/better trending in Oct)
USA: 13.8% YOY increase (vast majority being within the past 2 months)
PAL: 8.6% YOY increase (same)
So if these numbers held in lockstep until the end of December, we should see total sales being for the EOY:
Japan: 386,512 units (selling another 228,015 units from now till Dec 31st)
USA: 5,062,935 units (selling another 2,338,780 units from now till Dec 31st)
PAL: 2,228,455 units (selling another 934,428 units from now till Dec 31st)
So, if all trends continued exactly (which IMO, I think the % increases will grow due to the price cut and continued strong software lineup), YOY sales will be 7,677,902 units, with 3,501,223 units coming from Oct 28th to Dec 31st. So yes, I think it'll beat it decently (mind you, your 3.2m number comes from 2-3 weeks ago).
Therefore, I do believe that the X360 will sell around 3.5m to 4.25m between now and Dec 31st. I don't think the competitors will hurt the X360, as we've seen that sales have increased vs. last year in every single territory, despite massive Wii sales, and a competitive Sony in PAL territories.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.
