One of my concerns and theories about the glut of excess software this Xmas, is that many established "middle" titles will effectively flop. These are primarily titles with established brand names, and significant development budgets.

Since the holidays are coming, there is a real chance some of these titles could rebound.

But I'm going to focus on titles with sales figures that are available now:

--- EA titles ---

Madden (All): Although not even close to a flop, sales are down considerably from last year (approx 30%-40% from last calculation) - even when more platforms are added.

FIFA 08 (360): I doubt EA is happy with 80k sales on the 360 for the first 2 weeks. PS2 version faring better. PS3/Wii versions under this again.

FIFA '08 (PSP/DS): Both versions around 11k. Poor. 

NBA Live '08 (All): The 360 has the best sales, still under 90k over 3 weeks. Not a great performance, and solidly beaten by Take-2's effort (200k).

Boogie (Wii): Under 130k isn't a complete disaster - but its not great either. Salvagable.

NHL '08 (PS3): 37k. Blah.

--- Activision ---

Tony Hawk Proving Ground (All): Very poor launch. 27k PS2, 24k 360. Under 80k for *all* platforms week#1 launch.

Shrek the 3rd (All): PS2 leads the platforms at 150k. Look at under 500k for *all* platforms over half a year of sales. Very poor for a huge brand, but might be enough to recoup dev costs.

Hot Wheels: Complete flunk. Best sales on the PS2, of 12k sales. 20k total over 4 weeks. Bad result for a big brand.

--- Capcom ---

MH2 (PSP): Its a big success in Japan, so the US is secondary. Still - sales under 100k for one of the best PSP titles is very disappointing.

--- Nintendo ---

Looking at the current US sales, there is very little that has sold badly. The one exception would be DK Barrel Blast - which has obviously flopped for quality reasons. Flash Focus hasn't had a strong start, but its sort of amazing that its selling at all. Elite Beat Agents has only sold 150k - maybe a little surprising?

--- Codemasters --- 

DIRT (PS3): Selling under 40k in 6 weeks, this is a distinctive flop. 360 version has sold 210k.

--- Eidos ---

PRISM (DS): Sold under 1000 units in week#1. Ouch. Ironically, I was reading on Penny Arcade yesterday that the game was rather good.

Lego Star Wars is still selling well - on the GC & PS2. Mark the new Lego Star Wars game as being a potential smash hit for Xmas.

--- Microsoft ---

PGR4: This stands out heavily to me. 3 weeks, 80k units - one platform. A terrible start for a quality racing title.

Blue Dragon at 120k sales hasn't done great, nor has Vampire Rain at 70k. Shadowrun ended up selling 240k, Fusion Frenzy II 100k (ok?), and Viva Pinata 250k (including some bundling).

--- Konami ---

Some interesting results here.

Pro Evolution '07 (360): 80k, after 40 weeks. Who was predicting this would sell 1m on the 360?

Dewy's Adventure (Wii): 20k, 5 weeks. Poor sales for a promising title. This is the result of a challenging, difficult (adult) title - in a package that appeals to kids.

Coded Arms (PSP): 15k, 5 weeks. Flunk.

Fishing Master (Wii): 17k, 5 weeks. Poor title, poor sales. Flunk. Chance to redeem over holidays.

--- Vivendi ---

Master of flops at the moment...

Crash of the Titans (All): Poor sales, across the board. 130k across 4 platforms. 4 weeks in. Should be selling better, got pretty solid reviews.

Legend of Spyro (All): If Crash did bad, Spyro was terrible. DS & PS2 versions sold ok, but across the board less than 60k sales. Bad for multiplatform, terrible when also a pretty strong IP. May sell over the holidays.

SWAT (PSP): 4k, week#1. Another PSP title not really selling.

--- Take2 / Rockstar ---

Table Tennis (Wii): Slow start at 8k. As interested as I am in this title, its still too expensive - and with not enough improvements to really get my attention. I want true 1:1 table tennis sim if it going to happen, with nice gfx please!

NHL 2K '08 (PS3): 15k sales, after 6 weeks. Poor result.

MLB Power Pro (Wii): 8k, 3 weeks. Not great (little expectation?).

--- THQ ---

Many titles have done poorly. I'll just summarise some of them:

Avatar (really poor), Juiced 2 (bad for a "high budget" title), Stuntman (failed to break 100k on the 360), Worms 2 (DS), Ratatouille (ok on handhelds, flunked on consoles).

FIFA games don't sell well in America. To be honest, it looks like it'll probably hit 200,000 + in the US in the end, and that makes me feel a little better. Maybe soccer will catch on over here some day. Same thing for PES 07. The only data available is from America, where this series does even less than FIFA. It would be like saying software sales are horrible because Madden didn't sell in Europe.

What happened?

Madden and Tony Hawk used to sells millions upon millions on the Playstation 2 alone, but now, not so much.

Still, the award for most floundering franchise would probably go to Need for Speed.

I have no idea what's happened to gaming. Seriously, what happened to people buying Crash and Spyro in the millions? Damn, I wish for the days of the Playstation and Nintendo 64 (sorry, the Saturn was a government conspiracy).

To sum it up, the Playstation is the best console ever made. Really.

Nintendo Explains Smash Bros. Brawl Delay
Outgoing VP of marketing says Nintendo's rethinking release calendar.


Super Smash Bros. Brawl was the first in what has turned out to be a number of recent delays, both high and low profile. But while Nintendo bandied their stock explanation of having more time to polish the game to perfection, Perrin Kaplan, their outgoing vice president of marketing in the U.S., gave an additional reason for the delay, one that seems to be a growing trend: getting the hell out of the way of the holiday onslaught.
Speaking to Stephen Totilo of the MTV Multiplayer blog (via Joystiq), Kaplan said the following about the new February 10, 2008 release date:

"Sunday is actually a really good launch day of the week for products. And I think we're actually starting to look at the annual calendar differently. The first two quarters of the year tend to be more quiet. But now we've seen some evidence of sales in that period. Other than the holiday quarter, I think the traditional way of viewing it is not necessarily a slam dunk. I think a really good product can be a slam dunk any time of the year."
Of course, Kaplan also said the extra time for polish contributed to the delay, saying "we see it [as] a little bit of a perfection program to make sure the game is absolutely as perfect as Japan knows it can be and it will." But for anyone who has ever complained about the glut of holiday releases -- as if publishers don't realize we like to play games all year round -- it's nice to see the message is being heard.

This does, however, mean that if you ever were one of those complainers, you're no longer allowed to whine about Brawl's delay. You can't have it both ways, after all.

Another way to look at it.
There are now, more choices. So, the people that bought those titles last year bought a different, more suitable title, this year.

To me a lot of those titles that have been around for a while are stale and a lot of the new ip's are not that interesting to begin with. Most are just the same old game with slight improvements. Rentables. Maybe people are just starting to wise up?

Shams, great breakdown. I have also been wondering about why major franchises have been declining in past years. I think it's mainly due to PS2 dominance waning but there is probably more to it than that.

God forbid, it might be the maturation of the gaming public. Really, the only widely received sequel this year has been Halo 3, and for good reason. It compounded on previous elements and then offered a load more for gamers to enjoy. Most of the previously huge franchises have been from the Japanese, a gaming culture that largely seems unwilling to change. I think we'll only see western games get bigger from here on out, just as we've seen for the past decade.

Overall, I hope this trend continues. We need less FFXXXX and more BioShocks, Mass Effects, Uncharteds, and other new IP. This industry is poised for some real change in IP, gameplay, and environment. The DS has provided the environments, the Wii has provided the gameplay, now we just need some killer IP (and not just the fresh-but-cool "same ol' same ol') to flesh it all out and grow gaming as a whole.

The Japanese are unwilling to change?

Aren't they the home of Nintendo and the casual gaming revolution?

DS says hi.

I honestly just think its sequel-itis. Sequels only sell so many times, and usually have diminishing returns. Especially true of yearly sequels.

Many of the games that are not selling are either pure sequels, or based on a brand + marketing to sell them.

There are so many titles these days, those "middle" titles get ignores. Its also a REAL bad time to release a middle title - watch it get squashed in the AAA stampede.

What is happening this year, is we have more AAA releases than EVER before. So many, that most people can barely afford to buy them all.  And this is bad news for anything that is even slightly not-AAA.

...

I always thought there was bound to be some form of contraction in the industry after this year - a few studios would close, people move to others, etc... end up with less studios, and more people in each. Publishers move to less titles, and more money in each + more "cheap" dev (casual?) titles.

Going to be interesting.