Somethings to take note of.

The Xbox 360 has a very strong 2010 software lineup to look forward to which may help the Xbox 360 system outsell the PS3. Even if it's by a very narrow margin. The known games are Alan Wake, Mass Effect 2, Fable III, Perfect Dark HD, Splinter Cell Conviction & Halo Reach. Those are the ones I know of anyways. God of War 3 & Heavy Rain is currently the only games that I know as PS3 exclusives for 2010. GoW 3 will sell like hell so that's a given but I can not say the same for Heavy Rain, the beautiful graphics & story line will not save it for the fact that it's a quick time event game. Something that only Euro gamers seem to appreciate. North American gamers CAN'T STAND QTE based games. It's the primary reason why Indigo Prophecy tanked so hard in North America despite the glowing reviews it received.

I can see the PS3 making another surge towards Q4 2010 into 2011. As is the case this year. They'll need a ton of unknown new IP's in 2010 however to stand a chance against the onslaught of Xbox 360 games coming down the pipe. There is no way a majority of there heavy hitting exclusives will make a 2010 release outside of DLC. Meaning no Uncharted game, No Resistance game, No Killzone game & No Ratchet & Clank game. If any one of those franchises have a 2010 release, they'll have to be damn good cus they'll obviously would of been rushed games.

The Natal also can not be ruled out which is another 2010 release product. With that will also come a handful of games right out of the launch window. Will it be succesful is up for debate but the fact that it's a 2010 release just adds to the strength of the 360 for 2010. So The Xbox 360 should gain some ground back in 2010. Then I can see the PS3 making another come back in 2011. It will keep flip flopping to the point that the PS3 will not catch up or the Xbox 360 sales completely fall off the map that will eventually help the PS3 catch up.

iv predicted end of march 2011 awhile ago no later than b4 2011 though

i c the gap being around 2.5-3mill in august 2010 if ps3 can win or be equal to the 360 next holiday season the gap will be gone sometime in early 2011 if not then u might have to wait till end of 2011 early 2012

@ Latin Legacy How could you forget Gran Tourismo?

Never.

I think never

ps3 needs to gain mainstream traction within the electronics market to have a chance in the u.s., i dont know if japan or europe will be able to make up the difference, thats really anyone's guess but it dosent look good.

natal is a big wild card for 360, microsoft could completely blunder it. either way the 360 has an attractive library and is going into a position where they can price cut very aggressively. sony on the other hand needs to focus on price given the overall weakness for other electronics (cameras, tv's) at the current time being.

it also depends on if microsoft can continue to keep itself on equal footing with sony on exclusives/the large 3rd party franchises...

on the other hand, outside of further price reductions, what does sony have to offer that could potentially change the systems status? one or two games can change how many systems you move for a period of time but given the gap in the americas they need a system changer to shake up the market.

the motion wand seems like a flop, blu ray isnt going to magically take off anytime soon. if it ever does, blu ray players have already entered the sub $200 dollar range. christmas specials this year saw some players at $125 or less, next christmas prices will be much more competitive. whatever bounce the ps3 would have gotten from blu ray has been missed with the entry price and lack of consumer interest. the market has moved beyond one player at this point.

I think by the end of 2010 or begining of 2010, it all depends on Sony off course if they are willing to drop the price by the end of 2010

What about Gran Turismo 5? Why do people give leaving out the Biggest PS3 exclusive?
Then there is MAG and The Last Guardian. Agent, Modnation Racers and LA Noire are all expected to launch in 2010 as well, along with platform exclusives like The Agency and FFXIV. There are others (both exclusive and platform exclusive), but I'm not going to list them all.

As for late heavy hitting exclusives: Resistance 3 should be expected for holidays 2010. Resistance: Fall of Man was 2006, Resistance 2 was 2008, Resistance 3 would make sense as 2010. Insomniac like to alternate between Resistance and R&C each year.
KZ3 is also possible, though improbable. To rule it out completely though is a mistake.
Some of the exclusives mentioned above (such as Agent and FFXIV) will most likely launch late in the year as well, providing a nice selection of exclusives throughout the year. Don't expect the PS3 to run out of exclusives in March. Sure Q1 is packed, but there are still other exclusives for the rest of the year.

August 2010

if microsoft doesn't have a $149 XBOX 360 on the market or less.

2012 is the date.