ps3 needs to gain mainstream traction within the electronics market to have a chance in the u.s., i dont know if japan or europe will be able to make up the difference, thats really anyone's guess but it dosent look good.
natal is a big wild card for 360, microsoft could completely blunder it. either way the 360 has an attractive library and is going into a position where they can price cut very aggressively. sony on the other hand needs to focus on price given the overall weakness for other electronics (cameras, tv's) at the current time being.
it also depends on if microsoft can continue to keep itself on equal footing with sony on exclusives/the large 3rd party franchises...
on the other hand, outside of further price reductions, what does sony have to offer that could potentially change the systems status? one or two games can change how many systems you move for a period of time but given the gap in the americas they need a system changer to shake up the market.
the motion wand seems like a flop, blu ray isnt going to magically take off anytime soon. if it ever does, blu ray players have already entered the sub $200 dollar range. christmas specials this year saw some players at $125 or less, next christmas prices will be much more competitive. whatever bounce the ps3 would have gotten from blu ray has been missed with the entry price and lack of consumer interest. the market has moved beyond one player at this point.
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