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Forums - Sales Discussion - The TEN WEEK countdown - begins now!

Ooops sorry, I was only calculating USA sales.



End of 2008 predcition:

Wii: 34 million

360: 23-26.5 million

PS3: 15-18 million

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using the same form as Shams:

Week#1: 200k (week starting October 23rd)
Week#2: 300k (Galaxy in Japan)
Week#3: 250k
Week#4: 375k (Galaxy in US, 12th-19th November)
Week#5: 600k (Thanksgivin, big releases, Europe Galaxy?)
Week#6: 600k (26th Nov - 2nd Dec)
Week#7: 750k (3rd Dec - 9th Dec)
Week#8: 850k (10th Dec - 16nd Dec)
Week#9: 1.1m (17th Dec - 23nd Dec)
Week#10: 675k (24th Dec - 30nd Dec)

Total: 6,000,000(18.5 million total LTD)

First of all Nintenod has on average has been shipping around 3 million each quarter. Meaning you would at least think they could double that for holiday season. Or to be competitive they would have to.

Second of all this week will be the last slow week for Wii. Cause after that it'll have nothing but huge releases and then holiday season. Nintendo is going to increase shipments starting mid November and it'll be huge throughout.

The only major part I disagreed with the creator is that it's going to be closer to 6 million as I think Nintendo can have taht easily shipped. I mean they plan on having 22 million shipped by March 2008. They have to have at least 19 million shipped by the end of the year for that to be pretty close to the truth.

Secondly the last week in December is not going to be as strong as the 2 weeks before it. Those 2 weeks are always stronger.



But an overall thing I expect these numbers by the end of the year:

Wii: 18-18.5 million sold
360: 14.7-15.2 million sold
PS3: 7.0-7.5 million sold



Um..PS3 is lower than 360, that's not right.



@Zucas:The last week (starting 23rd Dec in America and 24th in Jp/Eu) does happen to have the biggest day of shopping included though Zucas (plus the second biggest day in America) so although i think that won't be enough to outsell the week before (ending 22nd/23rd) it will be higher than 2 weeks before christmas (week ending 8th/9th).

So i would change that to this;
Week#1: 200k (week starting October 23rd)
Week#2: 300k (Galaxy in Japan)
Week#3: 250k
Week#4: 375k (Galaxy in US, 12th-19th November)
Week#5: 500k (Thanksgivin, big releases, Europe Galaxy?)
Week#6: 600k (26th Nov - 2nd Dec)
Week#7: 700k (3rd Dec - 9th Dec)
Week#8: 850k (10th Dec - 16th Dec)
Week#9: 1.1m (17th Dec - 23rd Dec)
Week#10: 800k (24th Dec - 30th Dec)


I also changed thanksgiving because you are putting too much into it (it's only one region after all) ....look at the 360 sales last christmas on the NEW COMPARISON CHARTS *excitement* and you will see that the line goes up pretty steady
All thanksgiving causes is that the week after thanksgiving is less of an increase over thanksgiving week than Thanksgiving was over the previous week (i think that made sense)

Also SMG is either the 18th or 19th so it is the same week as in US ...actually dont they usually release on Fridays, so maybe it is 17th instead.

 

@cool: what do you mean, lower than 360 for when/where....in most cases 360 is above PS3 but until you are specific i don't really know (were you on about the original post or what?)



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Yes I could agree with the changes you made to that week by week WW sales thing.



Soriku said:
See sig, but I MIGHT change PS3 later.

Ooh, are you going to adjust later? B/c I've kept your prediction in my sig well over 5 months now? ~.^



"We'll toss the dice however they fall,
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lol, exactly soriku, if you keep changing your prediction every month or so it defeats the point.

 

maybe you should make it clear what your prediction used to be (give a date) and what it is now.....preferably without making your sig any longer as well.



davygee said:
DS - 57-59m
PSP - 27-29m
Wii - 16-17m
360 - 13-14m
PS3 - 7-8m

So you're saying you expect 360 sales to slow down over the holidays?

you're crazy. 

 



Help! I'm stuck in a forum signature!

Some of you are forgetting the recent comments by Nintendo about having twice as many Wii's available this Christmas over last (in North America).

Here is my prediction.

November 21st-December 30th Wii sales

4.4 Million

October 23-November 21st

1.8 Million

Sales Breakdown

3.2 Million North America
1.6 Million Europe
1.4 Million Japan

Total: 6.2 Million



Prepare for termination! It is the only logical thing to do, for I am only loyal to Megatron.