Procrastinato said: Avinash_Tyagi said: Sony will have a hard time keeping the PS3 going for more than 2-3 more years, just because of the issue of sales, they'll need a new console by 2012 at the latest, although more than likely 2011, especially if the Wand doesn't take off I think this post must have come through some sort of time-warp, from 2007. =)

No, not at all, just looking at the facts, Sony used a price drop and newly revised hardware to get them to where they are, but so what, you don't think that MS will price cut the 360, possibly before the holidays, and certainly next spring, not to mention when NATAL releases they'll try and bundle it but keep the price the same, as a result Sony will also price cut, by next fall you can bet that PS3 and 360 will be $250 tops, possibly $199, basically both systems are running out of price room to maneuver in, not to mention, you'll see a sales decline in the next few years from the PS3 and 360, so yeah a 2-3 year range for the PS3 and 360 is very likely

Avinash_Tyagi said: Procrastinato said: Avinash_Tyagi said: Sony will have a hard time keeping the PS3 going for more than 2-3 more years, just because of the issue of sales, they'll need a new console by 2012 at the latest, although more than likely 2011, especially if the Wand doesn't take off I think this post must have come through some sort of time-warp, from 2007. =) No, not at all, just looking at the facts, Sony used a price drop and newly revised hardware to get them to where they are, but so what, you don't think that MS will price cut the 360, possibly before the holidays, and certainly next spring, not to mention when NATAL releases they'll try and bundle it but keep the price the same, as a result Sony will also price cut, by next fall you can bet that PS3 and 360 will be $250 tops, possibly $199, basically both systems are running out of price room to maneuver in, not to mention, you'll see a sales decline in the next few years from the PS3 and 360, so yeah a 2-3 year range for the PS3 and 360 is very likely

Sorry Avinash... I just don't agree.  I think you're missing an awful lot of information, and are unable to make a decent analysis.  No offense.

Prices don't just "drop" for no reason -- it may have appeared that way, historically, but we are entering a radically new era, in terms of technology pricing and production.  On top of that, natal will be heinously expensive -- don't kid yourself into thinking otherwise.

In other news, HD TV adoption continues to rise, and with that, the Wii's marketshare will continue to decline.  As a matter of fact, HD TV penetration and the HD console marketshare (vs the Wii marketshare) change in an almost linear fashion -- progress will just plain remove the Wii from the equation, if it doesn't evolve sooner, rather than later.  It has penetrated enough to sustain software sales for a couple more years without progression, but beyond that, it'll simply fall flat on its face.  

Nintendo won't sit on their laurels and watch the competition take over their market years later.  Nintendo will suppliment the Wii, likely with a new hardware revision, pretty soon.  2011 at the latest.

Damnyouall said: Honest answer to an honest question: You have to be demented (like the starter of this thread) to think this generation is about to end. Of course if you are living inside the Nintendo-Wii-reality-distortion-field and haven't seen what the other consoles are capable of and pretend that Wii is the only system in existence, then yes, things are going downhill (for you). After all Wii was outdated even before it was released, so 4 years later the glorified Gamecube with a waggle stick is getting buried in tons of shovelware and crappy ports, while most real gamers have switched to hardware that is actually modern and capable of running cutting edge game engines and delivering cutting edge graphics.

@ procratino: Sorry I think you are ignoring things and hoping for a much rosier future for HD sytems than will actually happen

I never said prices drop for no reason, I said MS will price drop, and MS will gladly take a Hit on NATAL to push it out, they can afford it, so Sony will have to keep pace, and that will result in prices being lower by next fall.

HD doesn't affect Wii sales, sorry, but nothing thr HD consoles have done or HD TV penetration has affected Wii sales, Wii sales are down due to weaker software lineups. Increased HDTV won't affect Wii. However trends are not as favorable for the HD systems, both are going to be declining in sales, along the same trends that hardcore systems have declined in the past.

Unlikely, as long as Nintendo continues to outsell and outprofit the competition they won't release a new console, they'll hold off knowing that the longer they wait the larger their profit margin will be on the next gen due to lower costs.

Avinash_Tyagi said: Sony will have a hard time keeping the PS3 going for more than 2-3 more years, just because of the issue of sales, they'll need a new console by 2012 at the latest, although more than likely 2011, especially if the Wand doesn't take off

the main difference betwen the Wii and the PS3 is that the PS3 sales haven't peaked yet...

2009 will be bigger than 2008.

And seeing how poor most of 2009 until the price cut was it's likely 2010 will be even better than 2009.

Sony isn't going to introduce a new model when the sales of the current one haven't peaked yet....

Avinash_Tyagi said: @ procratino: Sorry I think you are ignoring things and hoping for a much rosier future for HD sytems than will actually happen I never said prices drop for no reason, I said MS will price drop, and MS will gladly take a Hit on NATAL to push it out, they can afford it, so Sony will have to keep pace, and that will result in prices being lower by next fall. HD doesn't affect Wii sales, sorry, but nothing thr HD consoles have done or HD TV penetration has affected Wii sales, Wii sales are down due to weaker software lineups. Increased HDTV won't affect Wii. However trends are not as favorable for the HD systems, both are going to be declining in sales, along the same trends that hardcore systems have declined in the past. Unlikely, as long as Nintendo continues to outsell and outprofit the competition they won't release a new console, they'll hold off knowing that the longer they wait the larger their profit margin will be on the next gen due to lower costs.

I'm not sure what you are basing yourself on to make your prediction.

You're saying HD consoles sales will decline when right now the only console who see declining sales is the Wii ( and all 3 had a price cut this year).

Right now I'm sorry but the console in the worse trend is the Wii as 3 weeks after a price cuts it can't even match the previous year weekly sales at a higher price point...

 

Outselling and outprofiting the competition isn't the main issue for Nintendo.

Their main issue as a company is to provide growth to the shareholders. If their growth stops, even if they are still profitable, they will have to do something to jump start it again...

And in that regard Nintendo is in a tougher situation than Microsoft ( but better than Sony).

Microsoft shares are 22% of their all time of January 2008 and the stocks has been climbing steadily these last months and the success of Windows 7 release isn't going to change this.

Nintendo's stock is of 53% of their all time high at the end of 2007. The stock hasn't been climbing these last 6 months while the whole market recovered and is likely to tank more when Nintendo updates their profit projection at the end of the quarter......

^You are assuming that PS3 will do better in 2009 than in 2008, and that Wii has peaked, however Wii's 2010 lineup is much stronger than the PS3's not to mention, PS3 will be facing greater price pressures and competition than the Wii in 2010. Also if the Wand fails, then Sony will be forced into trying to adapt for the next gen.

Actually profit is a much bigger issue than growth and the loss of stock value, because profits allow you to pay out dividends and keep your investors happy, and Sony is in big trouble with regards to profit, their still losing money on the 120GB slim, and with price cuts coming next year, will probably face continued losses.

Avinash_Tyagi said: ^You are assuming that PS3 will do better in 2009 than in 2008, and that Wii has peaked, however Wii's 2010 lineup is much stronger than the PS3's not to mention, PS3 will be facing greater price pressures and competition than the Wii in 2010. Also if the Wand fails, then Sony will be forced into trying to adapt for the next gen. Actually profit is a much bigger issue than growth and the loss of stock value, because profits allow you to pay out dividends and keep your investors happy, and Sony is in big trouble with regards to profit, their still losing money on the 120GB slim, and with price cuts coming next year, will probably face continued losses.

I am not assuming.

These are the facts :

http://news.vgchartz.com/news.php?id=5640

Avinash_Tyagi said: ^You are assuming that PS3 will do better in 2009 than in 2008, and that Wii has peaked, however Wii's 2010 lineup is much stronger than the PS3's not to mention, PS3 will be facing greater price pressures and competition than the Wii in 2010. Also if the Wand fails, then Sony will be forced into trying to adapt for the next gen. Actually profit is a much bigger issue than growth and the loss of stock value, because profits allow you to pay out dividends and keep your investors happy, and Sony is in big trouble with regards to profit, their still losing money on the 120GB slim, and with price cuts coming next year, will probably face continued losses.

Case 1 : You buy a bond 100$ , after 2 years it is worth 50$ but pays a wooping 5%

Case 2 : You buy a bond 100$, after 2 years it is worth 120$ but only pays a wooping 0.5%.

You are arguing case 1 is better ??????

Damnyouall said: Damnyouall said: Honest answer to an honest question: You have to be demented (like the starter of this thread) to think this generation is about to end. Of course if you are living inside the Nintendo-Wii-reality-distortion-field and haven't seen what the other consoles are capable of and pretend that Wii is the only system in existence, then yes, things are going downhill (for you). After all Wii was outdated even before it was released, so 4 years later the glorified Gamecube with a waggle stick is getting buried in tons of shovelware and crappy ports, while most real gamers have switched to hardware that is actually modern and capable of running cutting edge game engines and delivering cutting edge graphics.

Blue-maybe... but that doesnt go to everyone... theres going to be more new release in the future

 

Red- I pretty much lost respect to you -__- you say its a glorified gamecube with a waggle stick (thats as stupid as saying that the ps3 is just a ps2 with pretty graphics and the 3 replacing the 2). You said that most real gamers dont have the wii... thats silly... The wii may not have the top notch graphics but it does quality games. If you only have a ps3 or a xbox360 and says the wii's got no games... this only applies to you as for me Im getting the most fun out of my wii! :)

P.s The wii is modern tech :P I thought that the xbox360 and ps3 were the future tech!