Honest answer to an honest question: You have to be demented (like the starter of this thread) to think this generation is about to end. Of course if you are living inside the Nintendo-Wii-reality-distortion-field and haven't seen what the other consoles are capable of and pretend that Wii is the only system in existence, then yes, things are going downhill (for you). After all Wii was outdated even before it was released, so 4 years later the glorified Gamecube with a waggle stick is getting buried in tons of shovelware and crappy ports, while most real gamers have switched to hardware that is actually modern and capable of running cutting edge game engines and delivering cutting edge graphics.

You're discounting some of factors that allowed the PS2 to last so long.

Like : 

- the PS2 successor was very expensive, making many people stick with the PS2

- You coudn't play PS2 games on the majority of PS3.

If the Wii successors comes out at a decent price and is backward compatible that will erode Wii sales very significantly....

PS : it definitly looks like the Wii peak will have been 2008 ( it's second year). The PS2 best years were actually it's 3rd and it's 5th...

^True, but only relevant, if the Wii successor comes out before the Wii gets near or passes the PS2, and even at its current pace, it'll likely pass before its successor can erode its sales too much.

I know the Nintendo fans may dislike this statement, but... Nintendo doesn't get to define when the "generation" ends. They can replace the Wii, but honestly, then they'll merely be making a 2nd entry (some would argue a 1st entry) into this "generation", really.

If Nintendo does replace the Wii, the new "Wii HD" (or whatever) will be 100% backwards compatible, and most games will merely support HD as an "add on" functionality -- higher rez in most/all cases, and better textures in some cases (core games).

This "generation" has a good 3-4 years years left in it, maybe much more, given the rising costs (and dropping profits) of consumer electronics, which is the major factor in determining when a new console generation is affordable enough to start. Nintendo has the option to produce much better hardware than the Wii, yes, but it won't be much better than the HD consoles, if it is better at all, due to cost reasons and Nintendo's (very smart) intent on hardware profit.

I would argue that one of the major reasons the Wii succeeded, is *because* of the diminishing returns of improving hardware, and the subsequent lengthening of the "console generation". What used to happen in 7 years time, may now take 10, or 14 -- Nintendo saw that, and reduced the size of the step, rather than lengthening the duration of their product cycle, because in doing so, there was also an opportunity to profit from hardware.

This Generation is not even at the half way point. Maybe MS will release a new console in 3 years but Sony wont. The PS3 hasn't even seen most of it's big franchises or hyped up new IPs yet. Gran Turismo, God of War, The Guardian(Team Ico), Twisted Metal, MAG(Zipper), or Heavy Rain are all still waiting to be released. This generation is going to last longer than previous generations because of firmware updates, higher initial costs for introducing a new console, and because the graphical gap between generations is becoming less and less of an advantage over older consoles, proven by the success of the Wii and its last gen graphics.

Sony will have a hard time keeping the PS3 going for more than 2-3 more years, just because of the issue of sales, they'll need a new console by 2012 at the latest, although more than likely 2011, especially if the Wand doesn't take off

I think this post must have come through some sort of time-warp, from 2007. =)

Good points.

And I'd add another one:

PS3 and XB360 have HD, their users are happy with them and they don't need HW upgraded successors anytime soon.

Wii OTOH doesn't have HD, but its users couldn't care lass and they are happy all the same, so no need for HW beefed-up successor here, either.

This ascertained, why HD fans are so eager to persuade Wii fans they need now something they couldn't care less about?

I suspect some of these threads are the offshoot of tecnophile shopaholics that can't enjoy anymore anything when it ceases being a novelty.

Uhhh.. no??

I don't expect any new consoles for some time.