I'll put mine up when we get this week's numbers. What's the point in putting them up knowing I'll change them soon anyways.

I updated my predictions, All my data was offset by 1 week ( i misread the 10 weeks starting and ending points).

EDIT: what the heck??? somehow my predictions got deleted!.

If you wouldn't mind, could you please shift all my numbers left 1 week and then add for week 10:

Wii: 900k

DS: 820k

PSP: 330k

360: 310k

Ps3: 420k.

OK, here are my (horrible) predictions, took me more than an hour to type this

Wii
Week 1- 390K
Week 2- 450K
Week 3- 500K
Week 4- 640K
Week 5- 900K
Week 6- 950K
Week 7- 1000K
Week 8- 1300K
Week 9- 1100K
Week 10- 550K
Total- 7780K

PS3
Week 1- 250K
Week 2- 280K
Week 3- 330K
Week 4- 370K
Week 5- 560K
Week 6- 580K
Week 7- 650K
Week 8- 800K
Week 9- 700K
Week 10- 370K
Total- 4890K

360
Week 1- 180K
Week 2- 210K
Week 3- 250K
Week 4- 290K
Week 5- 450K
Week 6- 440K
Week 7- 500K
Week 8- 570K
Week 9- 500K
Week 10- 260K
Total- 3650K

DS
Week 1- 420K
Week 2- 500K
Week 3- 600K
Week 4- 690K
Week 5- 1050K
Week 6- 1120K
Week 7- 1340K
Week 8- 1900K
Week 9- 1800K
Week 10- 850K
Total- 10720K

PSP
Week 1- 190K
Week 2- 220K
Week 3- 250K
Week 4- 290K
Week 5- 430K
Week 6- 470K
Week 7- 530K
Week 8- 620K
Week 9- 530K
Week 10- 300K
Total- 3830K

So basically you just need to compare the predictions to the actual results and not the other way around. At least in my opinion being 50k over or under should be considered as an equally right (or wrong) prediction. Talking about scoring, how will these consults be scored and ranked?

About important dates: PSP Go releases in Japan on November 1, which means 1 day in week 1 I think. (I'll need to edit my own predictions because of it as well) Black Wii releases in the UK at November 6 and in the rest of Europe November 20. (which probably means a missive week 4 for Wii in Others seeing it is combined with the release of NSMB)

Ive done some more edits

Yes you are correct, I compare the predictions to the results. So if you are 50k above, it's the same innaccuracy as 50k below, but it is still better to under-predict... last year there were 4-5 predictions that were over 100% wrong, which is only possible with over-predicting.

I suppose really there are two different methods, and neither is fair to both under and over-predicting.

The way I do it now: If A predicts 200k, and B predicts 50k, the sales turn out to be 100k.... this results in A getting 100 points, and B getting 50 points.... but you could argue they were just as innaccurate because A predicted double, and B predicted half (each bein 1/ the other, so is their opposite) After all, it is not too difficult to over-predict by double, but no-one is going to predict 0 sales (which would be the only way to get the same points as someone who predicted double if using the current method)

So the way I do it, where equal figure discrepancy = equal score... favours under-predicting.
The second way, where equal fractional discrepancy = equal score... favours over-predicting.

-----

Lets see what happens if we do both and divide by 2:

Scenario i) A predicts 50k, B predicts 150k.... real figure is 100k.

by method 1.... A and B both get 50 points.
by method 2.... A gets 100 points, B gets 33 points

the mean of the two methods gives.... A: 75 points and B: 42 points

Scenario ii) A predicts 50k, B predicts 200k.... real figure is 100k.

by method 1.... A gets 50 points, B gets 100 points
by method 2.... A and B both get 100 points

the mean of the two methods gives.... A: 75 points and B: 100 points

----

So when combining both methods, it shows more that B was predicting better in scenario i) (even though they re both 50k off.... you only need to X the real figure by 1.5 to get to Bs prediction, but you need to / by 2 to get to A)
Similary it doesn swing in the other direction in scenario ii)

If everyone agrees with using the average of both methods I can implement that into the spreadsheet.

Is getting points positive or negative?

less points is always better... because you get more points the more innacurate you are.

Here are my predictions...

Wii:
Week 1: 390,000
Week 2: 440,000
Week 3: 490,000
Week 4: 580,000
Week 5: 1,040,000
Week 6: 970,000
Week 7: 1,200,000
Week 8: 1,800,000
Week 9: 2,050,000
Week 10:900,000

PS3:
Week 1: 280,000
Week 2: 300,000
Week 3: 320,000
Week 4: 390,000
Week 5: 660,000
Week 6: 580,000
Week 7: 650,000
Week 8: 880,000
Week 9: 900,000
Week 10: 470,000

360:
Week 1: 160,000
Week 2: 200,000
Week 3: 220,000
Week 4: 300,000
Week 5: 530,000
Week 6: 450,000
Week 7: 520,000
Week 8: 600,000
Week 9: 680,000
Week 10: 330,000

DS:
Week 1: 380,000
Week 2: 420,000
Week 3: 500,000
Week 4: 650,000
Week 5: 1,170,000
Week 6: 1,000,000
Week 7: 1,250,000
Week 8: 1,750,000
Week 9: 1,950,000
Week 10: 870,000

PSP:
Week 1: 180,000
Week 2: 170,000
Week 3: 190,000
Week 4: 230,000
Week 5: 380,000
Week 6: 340,000
Week 7: 400,000
Week 8: 490,000
Week 9: 520,000
Week 10: 280,000