Yeah. I don't see PS3 below 230k and Xbox 360 over 150k for next weeks.

Avg. 130k per week... 650k or more in five weeks. But the trend is to increase sales come as close to Black Friday.

So... more 100k because the sales  increasing... 750k.

PS. My only question is next week with Forza 3, but I think it will not move hardware.

@ZorroX, my numbers don't indicate Xbox 360 doing better than last year, but I am comparing it to itself and not to PS3's 2008 numbers. Cause there really is no good reason to compare it to PS3 when this has very different strong and weak markets than Xbox 360. Xbox 360 is selling close to last years numbers in the Americas, about 50% of its sales in Others and I didn't bother to check Japanese numbers since they'll be insignificant to its total holiday sales. That is a completely different situation than saying its worldwide sales are only 2 third of last year sales since the US sees a much bigger holiday bump compared to Japan.

Yes this will be very interesting to look at after the holidays.

i think your assumptions here fall under wishful thinking. your worst case scenario has the xbox selling 3.5 million over the holiday stretch when it sold over 5 last year. that's almost a 40% drop! how do you justify that?

4th year on the market. Do you read me?
No new pricedrops. Price is same as last year, 199$ is entry price and 299$ for main model.
Or maybe some people believe, that L4D2 and Forza 3 are huge system sellers?
And MW2 bundle cost 399$, which only hardcore CoD4:MW fans would buy.

So far, the scenario is where PS3 is doing better, than x360 last year. And x360 is doing worse, than PS3 last year.
I noticed this trend several weeks ago and decided to make a thread.

Of`course, there is a chance, for x360 to perform better, than 3.5 mln.(PS3 2008 numbers), x360 is still strong competitor in NA.
But so and PS3 this year.

@koffieboon, i looked at numbers:
http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=------&cons2=PS3&reg2=America&cons3=X360&reg3=America&start=39698&end=40104
x360 sales also a bit down compared to last year, and only with help of Halo:ODST were able to stabilize at 75-80k range so far.
So i wouldn`t expect last year x360 numbers in NA. In best case, this would be still 2.5 mln. for the rest of year.
And with 50% down in Others or total around 1 mln. units(unless Forza 3 will do wonders), that would be still around 3.5 mln. total numbers.
I just don`t see why x360 sales would increase on 4th year of sales without pricedrops. Those who wanted x360 at 199-299$ already bought it last year and now only stable/regular sales for HD console are left.

Overall, this year is about 299$ 120GB PS3 vs 299$ 120GB x360. PS3 is very likely to take some x360 sales this year. We will see very soon.

Very interesting. Without the math to back it up, this would have sounded ludicrous. But the numbers don't lie and your predictions seem not only possible but very likely.

I really don't care for which year in the market it is, I'm just looking at the sales patterns of both this and last year and both are doing close to 80k weeks at the moment in the Americas, with Halo 3 ODST not having a big impact on this years numbers. Also I don't expect Xbox 360 to reach last years numbers, my prediction puts it at around 10-20% lower than last year. Your worst case scenario however puts it at around 50% of last years numbers, how is that a reasonable prediction?

Your 1 million prediction for Others is also very low. Yes current sales are almost 50% lower than last year, but in 2007 they were even lower (apart from a 2 week bump around the release of Halo 3) around 40k per week compared to 55-60k per week this year. Yet it still managed to sell 1,1 million units for the rest of 2007. Xbox 360 should easily be able to outsell its 2007 numbers, which puts its lower bound above 1,1 million for that region.

It`s 75-80k for x360 now in NA, but will it follow the last year increase for rest weeks, like it had thanks to pricecut? I don`t expect that.
No pricecut, same price, 4th year, strong competition from PS3. That`s why it is worst case scenario.

Others. Again, it`s 4th year, market get saturated with x360 consoles. While PS3 always had strong positions in Europe. Now with new 299 euro price, it will do much better.

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 21st Oct 2007 to 05th Jan 2008:

It depends more on what Christmas bump x360 will have in NA, rather than weekly sales:
http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=------&cons2=PS3&reg2=America&cons3=X360&reg3=America&start=39376&end=39453

@Metsadah, they can try, but i made my estimates on current data. Of`course, if x360 will start selling at 149$/249$, this will be another story.

MS might cut prices still, or bring good bundles with good prices. Dont underestimate them. They are not going to sell that much less then last year. Maybe 10% to 15% less. But thats about it.

@ZorroX Sorry, but Xbox 360 only selling 1,5 million consoles in the Americas isn't a worst case scenario, it is an impossible scenario. The only way it can come true is if Microsoft decides to withdraw from the gaming market. But then you can put 0 consoles sold as a worst case scenario for all platforms.

As for Others, there is no different market for Xbox 360 and PS3. They're both part of the same market being very close substitutes of each other. So if the market is really saturated they're both going to have a hard time selling their consoles, not just Microsoft. If you want to argue the brand power of Playstation is a lot higher than Xbox in Europe you have a point, but that's not the same as market saturation.

All in all I feel your Xbox 360 numbers range from disaster to worst case scenario and your PS3 numbers range from normal to incredible scenario, so basically a very unbalanced view.