Wii did 501k in September NPD, which would translate to 400.8k if the sales rate was the same during October (because it's a 4 week month).

So to get 454k, it would need to increase its sales rate by 13%. That's not a huge increase, but I don't think supply is going to increase much until mid-November... Mid-November sounds right to me since it's both the start of the holiday season sales craze and close to SMG's release date.

So I'm betting on NPD's 13th month making it hit 5 million (but possibly still within 1 year of launch as RolStoppable said).

PS: I could of course be wrong if people start buying more Wiis in places it's not sold out in anticipation of the holiday period... I have no idea if this could increase sales by 13%, but I'm guessing it can't.

John Lucas where are you and your predictions?

Wii might just pass the 5 million mark this month

how much generally is VGC above NPD for all three? i remember ioi saying something about 'like to be above by 5%' because he believes NPD are conservative.

VGC data includes Canada and a bit extra for the Americas. This is just for the USA so I'm going by NPD data.

Ah they call my name. It's like a genie! Summon and I appear.

OK, let's see. You all know my steadfast never-changing belief about Wii easily hitting 20 million before calendar year's end with a max total of 24 million. I love to say so ahead of time when everybody thinks I'm crazy and they slowly but surely align to my type of thinking.

Within the parameters of NPD figures, can Wii hit 5 million in the USA in 12 NPD months?

Does a desperate roadside driver piss in the bushes?

Does a NeoGAFer continue to be bamboozled and bewilderfied at the 'casual' market?

Is Kwaad's elf avatar green?

Does a politician lie?

Does Marion Jones use The Clear?

Does a rodeo clown get gored?

Do hockey players fight?

Does DRM suck?

Is the RIAA dinosaurs?

Does a drunk turn green?

Does a weed smoker have difficulty opening eyes to fullbeam?

Does VGChartz rule?

Do I need to ask anymore jokey questions?

I don't even have to analyze number by number. It's a no-brainer.

September shows the continued fervor to buy up the system that has not stopped since launch. Along with October it is the time most people start buying for Christmas to beat the Christmas rush. Lots of people want Wii as gifts and the legend of 2006 is fueling this. So many missed out due to shortages and launch fever. They were patiently awaiting 2007 to get Wiis. Japan has partially dropped off due to Nintendo prepping USA and other regions for Christmas. Japan's owned by Nintendo now. There's no more fight there. The fight is in USA against a tough XBox 360 and in Europe against historical weakness in that area.

Wii numbers will go UP in October. October, November, December will be monstrous and Nintendo's pushing that supply. Ask me about October XMas buying and I'll tell you the story of how my grandmother bought me an NES that I opened XMas day 1988.

Not only that but some key games are starting to come down the pike most specially Galaxy. Brawl would have only made it worse and it's probably a relief to the retail clerks that that got pushed back so they wouldn't have to work as hard. The fact that Nintendo stayed strong in the usually weak summer shows that things are on the pickup for the giftgiving season.

Though I may have been wrong about Wii passing 360 in North America within summer (dammit Nintendo and your supplies) I STILL hold to what I said about Wii passing them within this year. It won't take 'til 2008 for Wii to surpass 360 and we'll see it in the holiday season. Worldwide that has happened as I knew it would and it will also be true WITHIN North America before 2007 ends.

Nintendomination was only in its 1st phase in 2006-2007. Larval stage. The Open House era that introduces and initiates Wii to buyers. The 2nd phase begins with Wii Fit and Galaxy dropping at the end of this year. Pupa stage. Wii will start pulling ahead of the competition in ways we could not fathom before. It will make 2007's success look like child's play. 3rd party will begin to work with the N and the game will change. 2008 will bring 3rd party power in full to Wii as Nintendo transforms the industry at its core rendering the competition more and more irrelevant with every move. Hello Star Wars light saber game. "Hi Nintendo in San Francisco! Hi LucasArts!" 2008 and 2009 will show new genres and gameplay that were previously unforeseen all because of Wii's existence. This will further render the competition irrelevant as they try to make new machines to offset these developments. HD making Nintendo's graphics obsolete? Try Wii controls making old controllers obsolete. 3rd stage, the emergence from the cocoon, shows a fully transformed industry that plays to Nintendo's rules as the Wii continues on its path as cultural phenomenon and is accepted as a common household appliance like TV, radio, toaster, microwave in one's household. This era will extremely push Wii numbers beyond that 240,000,000 number I predicted (some know my real number: 500,000,000) You weren't supposed to look there! Naughty!

Like those predictions? I hope so. I had fun making them.

John Lucas

 With Guitar Hero 3 release on 28th, Wii might be sell very well in october. It only depends on supply ! 

Sounds a bit crazy, but now that John's said it, it's guaranteed to happen. Better start getting used to the idea.

That crazy old man at the church was right! He told me i would meet lot's and lot's of loonies on vgchartz :P. J.K. Lucas

I think Wii will easily hit that 5 million mark in October. As stated already, early Christmas buyers and the start of a supply of good games will see to that. It's only limitation is supply, and Nintendo should be ramping it up for the holidays.

Good analysis TheSource. I wonder if publishers/developers/analysist notice these trends because they can be very telling. I don't know how people can wonder how SONY may need to plead with developers/publishers when their system is tracking like the dreamcast.