Wii did 501k in September NPD, which would translate to 400.8k if the sales rate was the same during October (because it's a 4 week month).
So to get 454k, it would need to increase its sales rate by 13%. That's not a huge increase, but I don't think supply is going to increase much until mid-November... Mid-November sounds right to me since it's both the start of the holiday season sales craze and close to SMG's release date.
So I'm betting on NPD's 13th month making it hit 5 million (but possibly still within 1 year of launch as RolStoppable said).
PS: I could of course be wrong if people start buying more Wiis in places it's not sold out in anticipation of the holiday period... I have no idea if this could increase sales by 13%, but I'm guessing it can't.
My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957
