Well, i'm bored, so i'll start one of the numerous prediction threads: which significant upcoming 3rd party games (no minigame-orientated) for wii will flop saleswise? Please write some arguments too. Games are(you can add other games too): No more heroes, PES 2008, NiGHTS, Zack & Wiki, Resident Evil: UC, Guitar Hero III,

I'll start:

No More Heroes - FLOP -Altho the game looks very promising, quirky and unique, i think it will mostly appeal to a niche market, which, judging by Killer7 sales, ain't that big.

PES 2008 - NOT - Radical approach to controls could easily burry this game, but the reactions so far are mostly positive. If controls work well, i see even ppl who bought the game for PS3 or x360 repurchasing this on wii.

NiGHTS - FLOP - despite many fans of the original, i don't see many other ppl buying this one. Plus, so far the game visually doesn't look very appealing(but it is shaping up lately)

Zack & Wiki - NOT - I think this game will not sell millions, but it will sell more than enough to justify the developement. If IGN is to be trusted, this is one of the best upcoming games for Wii. It is also on top of my list, along with No More Heroes, SSBB, SMG, Okami and WiiFit.

Resident Evil: UC - NOT - altho being on rails, this is still a new RE game, and as such will sell well.

Guitar Hero III - NOT - main target of this game is the mainstream market, which is the same target as WiiFit's, and Wii itself. It would be really worrysome if this game would flop on Wii

Edit: forgot to add Wii in the title to avoid confusion

Edit #2: Bringing the thread back from the dead because all games are released and on the market for some time 

I can't really say I know how any of these games will sell because I can see arguments either way ...

No More Heroes shares a lot of stylistic elements with Killer 7 but the core gameplay is drastically different; Killier 7 sold reasonably well when you combine PS2 and Gamecube sales but didn't get to "amazing" levels mainly because its core gameplay was very different.

Nights ... If implemented well this could surprise but it is a Sega game which in itself is reason to doubt its quality.

Zack and Wiki ... There is a reason why point and click adventure games disapeared but I believe there still is a pretty large market of people who would play these games if they were still available.

Resident Evil; gun games rarely sell well but you usually have to buy the gun to go along with it.

Guitar Hero III ... Guitar hero is already huge on the PS2 and XBox 360, and I wonder whether or not there are that many fans left untapped.

No More Heroes - FLOP - Unless Grasshopper and them really start investing in some serious time marketing this game will flop. I mean it'll get a nice chunk of sales but it could have been a million seller.

PES 2008 - FLOP- will sports games ever start to sale on Wii. Maybe with this title but I'm going to say not right now.

NiGHTS - NOT - this is really going to bring in some hardcore gamers plus a nice fanbase for the game. I think this will be quite nice.

Zack & Wiki - NOT - I think IGN has alone hyped and marketed this up enough to ensure it doesn't flop.

Resident Evil: UC - NOT - this is going to sell a million copies no matter how good it is. RE brandname on the Wii is quite big.

Guitar Hero III - NOT - when this releases on Wii it could be collossal. This may be the best selling of all of the platforms. Don't quote me on that.

No more heroes, FLOP, Just because.

PES 2008, FLOP, How the game controlls work might prove me wrong but I dont think it will do as good on Wii as other consoles.

NiGHTS, FLOP, Getting released the same day as 2 other big 3rd party games in Chocobo Dungeon and Soul Calibre Ledgends could see this title getting ignored.

Zack & Wiki, NOT, Not heard a bad comment about the game.

Resident Evil: UC, NOT, Hopefully it will do good enough to get a RE5 port.

Guitar Hero III, NOT, PS3 version out week before christmas, no release date for Wii version could be a FLOP if it comes out next year.

@Komodo:
Guitar Hero 3 is released October 28th... are you thinking of rockband?

 No more Heroes:  Depends entirely on marketing.  Considering Nintendo is trying to draw in more hardcore players, and this will be a hardcore game, if nintendo helps them out with advertising then I think it could do very well.

PES I don't know enough about this game and am withholding judgement.

NiGHTS.  This game might not sell well right at release, but I can see it being a popular holiday gift.  I would say in this case it will sell decent numbers, but people will be disappointed by them for not being higher.

Zach and Wiki.  Not. This might not sell well initially, but like with NiGHTS i think it will sell well (better than NiGHTS in fact) around the holidays.

GH3:    Not. 

Flop:
No more heroes
PES 2008
Nights

No flop:
Zack and Wiki
Guitar Hero III
Resident Evil

I would imagine that RE:UC will flop if you expect it to sell alot, half of what RE4 on the wii would be considered pretty good sales in my mind.

PES will sell less then the PS3 version in my mind, which could be considered both ways, the wii has more units but the PS3 fan would be considered a bigger sports fan/hardcore gamer.

flop:nights
not flops:the others

What's the definition of a flop?

A game that sells so poorly that it can't cover its budget.

(ex. Lair)