Probably will be that late yes, may not even manage it. (though it won't fall much from it either, like 45% at worst)

It won't happen in 2011 without a significant change in the playing field. Without that significant game changer, it won't happen ever and may well continue to drop slightly heading into 2011.

At this point, all three have well rounded libraries so no one should assume that XXX game(s) that you can't wait to play in 2010, 2011, or whenever is going to change that.

The only way we'll see any major shifts in market share moving into the 4th year and beyond, is if one company replaces its own current offering with an all new console before the others and effectively ends their 7th gen production cycle.

MS will stay with the 360 for as long as possible on the assumption that Natal will be a successful relaunch of the platform to the extended gaming market.

SCE is essentially tied to the PS3 platform until it starts recouping the losses from this generation to a point where a new platform can be justified.

Nintendo won't kill its golden egg laying goose, but a significant product revision (like the DS to DSi) could lead to a two-tiered console line in the future.

Beyond that, the only thing that will cause major shifts in hardware movement for the Wii would be prices in the $99-149 range. At either price point, particularly $99 (which would be the absolute bottom before going out of production), that is when the Wii would see PS2 (generation total) levels of market penetration. Further price cuts are not in Nintendo's current strategy and unless sales rates decline again in 2010, I don't see this changing in time to make a difference by 2011.

i doubt the wii will hit 50+% unless it pulls a ps2 with a further pricecut in a about 2 years.
it is probably only possible for the wii to hit that high towards the end of this gen.

They are at 48% right now, so it wouldn't take that much for them to get to 50% again. Really all they need is one big, system-selling hit like Wii Fit.

They will pass 50% by year's end. There is no supply constraint as in previous years, and no one benefits more from the holiday season than Nintendo.

I agree this is the one thing that can help wii a lot

Not Zelda wii or anything.....THIS

The only way the Wii could possibly NOT get to 50% is if the PS3 and 360 stayed on store shelves as long as the Wii does, and I think everybody knows the Wii will be the last of the three to get its plug pulled, by far.

It will get to 50%. Not any time soon but it will. Wii has hit a slump, which I believe will be its worst sales in at least a couple years, and PS360 are nearly their peak fueled by price cuts and redesigns. Nintendo will gain some of that marketshare back over the holiday season where they tend to thrive the most, and things will settle back to normal.

It depends on Japanese reception of NSMBWii. If it pushes Wii sales in Japan considerably for a longer period of time, Wii could start outselling X360+PS3 again, and slowly crawling to 50%.

A year ago, everyone was sure that the Wii will reach 50% by the end of 2009, simply by extrapolating the sales of that time.

It would be a mistake to do the same, and expect 2010 to be simply even more of the current trends. We don't even know what will be the regular sales of any console after all these price cuts effects calm down!

The success/failure of the Sony Wand and the Vitality Sensor could both change the winds, in any direction.