It won't happen in 2011 without a significant change in the playing field. Without that significant game changer, it won't happen ever and may well continue to drop slightly heading into 2011.
At this point, all three have well rounded libraries so no one should assume that XXX game(s) that you can't wait to play in 2010, 2011, or whenever is going to change that.
The only way we'll see any major shifts in market share moving into the 4th year and beyond, is if one company replaces its own current offering with an all new console before the others and effectively ends their 7th gen production cycle.
MS will stay with the 360 for as long as possible on the assumption that Natal will be a successful relaunch of the platform to the extended gaming market.
SCE is essentially tied to the PS3 platform until it starts recouping the losses from this generation to a point where a new platform can be justified.
Nintendo won't kill its golden egg laying goose, but a significant product revision (like the DS to DSi) could lead to a two-tiered console line in the future.
Beyond that, the only thing that will cause major shifts in hardware movement for the Wii would be prices in the $99-149 range. At either price point, particularly $99 (which would be the absolute bottom before going out of production), that is when the Wii would see PS2 (generation total) levels of market penetration. Further price cuts are not in Nintendo's current strategy and unless sales rates decline again in 2010, I don't see this changing in time to make a difference by 2011.
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