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Forums - Sales Discussion - ioi vs ZorroX :: Japan prediction Contest for Wii & PS3 Holiday Sales. :P

Noobie said:

 


Wii PS3

ioi's Orig ioi's Upd ZorroX' Orig ZorroX's Upd Actual Last Year      ioi's  ZorroX's Actual Last Year
27-Sep-09 18,000 18,000 18,000 18,000 12,415 26,183  30,000 42,000 45,430 8,370
04-Oct-09 45,000 45,000 45,000 45,000 33,831 25,691       30,000 47,000 37,642 7,400
11-Oct-09 41,500 41,500 41,500 41,500 30,017 22,214       28,000 40,000 30,081 5,875
18-Oct-09 38,500 38,500 38,500 38,500 28,596 25,538       25,000 45,000 28,902 4,810
25-Oct-09 36,000 25,000 36,000 36,000 25,560 24,671       23,000 40,000 30,793 4,056
01-Nov-09 45,000 35,000 55,000 45,000 28,056 24,086       31,000 65,000 36,896 38,171
08-Nov-09 42,500 36,000 42,500 30,500 28,017 26,890       27,500 55,500 46,422 22,399
15-Nov-09 55,000 42,000 55,000 37,500 24,982 28,922       31,000 52,000 36,106 20,426
22-Nov-09 145,000 40,000 115,000 35,000 31,046 37,800       31,000 51,000 32,195 17,895
29-Nov-09 105,000 52,500 75,000 47,000 44,377 45,970       38,500 55,500 41,572 35,339
06-Dec-09 95,000 155,000 85,000 125,000
55,405       49,500 60,500
28,432
13-Dec-09 110,000 135,000 100,000 120,000   92,392       75,000 95,000   32,169
20-Dec-09 180,000 190,000 125,000 155,000   141,141     175,000 245,000   38,431
27-Dec-09 215,000 255,000 145,000 175,000   148,627     125,000 195,000   47,464
03-Jan-10 165,000 165,000 115,000 130,000   130,613     110,000 180,000   64,970
10-Jan-10 65,000 65,000 75,000 50,000   42,843       47,500 97,500   29,240
17-Jan-10 50,000 50,000 50,000 40,000   31,632       40,000 70,000   20,251
24-Jan-10 40,000 40,000 40,000 35,000   26,226       36,500 56,500   17,765
31-Jan-10 35,000 35,000 35,000 30,000   24,093       33,250 53,250   16,932
Total Till Now 571,500 373,500 521,500 374,000 286,897 287,965 295,000 492,500 366,039 164,772
Grand Total 1,526,500 1,463,500 1,291,500 1,234,000   980,937 986,750 1,458,750   460,417
                     
          Wii       PS3  
At Start         8,537,012       3,597,048  
To Achieve         10,000,000       5,000,000  
Total Diff         1,462,988       1,402,952  
Ach Till Now         286,897 -0.4%     366,039 122%
Curr Total         8,823,909       3,963,087  
Remaing         1,176,091       1,036,913  

 

Sorry for the belated update to the thread.

1. Result is showing that Wii is not rising the way many expected.. although the software has done enormously well... This week ZorroX number for Wii are pretty accurate and ioi numbers for PS3 are also pretty good. But ioi's Wii prediction are quite high.

2. With leaked Famitsu numbers, the next week Wii numbers are also going to be well below the ioi's expectation.. and PS3 is going to be a little up than ioi's expectation.. again we r seeing the ioi is predicting PS3 pretty well but for Wii he has lot of faith which is not turning out to be true... Wii might be reaching its saturation point or maybe PS3 new price point is giving a lot of tough time for Wii.. But it is definitely an interesting battle between the two consoles in their home turf..



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^^
Nice job, it will help for the next weeks.



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW! 
 


Here is the update from the Wii 10M / PS3 5M thread which you can check out here:

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=87346&page=1

Notes:

1) Last week's numbers have both been adjusted upwards slightly.  Wii still ended up on top, but the difference was more than halved to 1,307.

2) As expected, Wii made back a big chunk of  PS3's lead this week, but fell considerably short of ioi's prediction (made Oct 21) of 155,000 sales.  Consequently the gap reduction was less than half of the predicted value of 110,000.

3) PS3 should still be leading the overall race when FFXIII launches (ioi's Oct 21 prediction has Wii reducing the gap by 75k next week), but there's a good chance that Wii will take over the "Since race start" lead next week.  This means Wii will have outsold PS3 when you exclude the 60k unit head start.

WEEK ENDING DECEMBER 06 Wii to 10M PS3 to 5M Lead
LTD total 8,927,960 4,016,737 Wii: 4,911,223
Left to target 1,072,040 983,263 PS3: 88,777
This week (yoy) 103,914 (+87.6%) 52,015 (+82.9%) Wii: 51,899
Since race start (yoy) 390,948 (+13.9%) 419,689 (+117.3%) PS3: 28,741


ViolentPhlegm said:

Here is the update from the Wii 10M / PS3 5M thread which you can check out here:

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=87346&page=1

Notes:

1) Last week's numbers have both been adjusted upwards slightly.  Wii still ended up on top, but the difference was more than halved to 1,307.

2) As expected, Wii made back a big chunk of  PS3's lead this week, but fell considerably short of ioi's prediction (made Oct 21) of 155,000 sales.  Consequently the gap reduction was less than half of the predicted value of 110,000.

3) PS3 should still be leading the overall race when FFXIII launches (ioi's Oct 21 prediction has Wii reducing the gap by 75k next week), but there's a good chance that Wii will take over the "Since race start" lead next week.  This means Wii will have outsold PS3 when you exclude the 60k unit head start.

WEEK ENDING DECEMBER 06 Wii to 10M PS3 to 5M Lead
LTD total 8,927,960 4,016,737 Wii: 4,911,223
Left to target 1,072,040 983,263 PS3: 88,777
This week (yoy) 103,914 (+87.6%) 52,015 (+82.9%) Wii: 51,899
Since race start (yoy) 390,948 (+13.9%) 419,689 (+117.3%) PS3: 28,741

Thanks, you are always updating it earlier than me.. i m sorry for being a little slow in updating due to studies.

By the way i think Wii most probably will not be able to erase the lead held by PS3 since the start of the race next week as i think PS3 is going to see like 65 - 70k of HW sales n Wii hardware sales is going to drop in 80 - 90k.. So in the end PS3 just might held onto its lead by a razor thin margin.. If the reports of SE marketing compaign is to believe i think a lot of hype has been created for FFXIII and its going to sell lot of hardware next week so that they r ready for the FFXIII.. Moreover PS3 is steadily rising by 10k for last couple of weeks without any software and i think this rise is only going to accelerate next week for first mega launch for PS3 in Japan..

But it sure is getting a very interesting race now... with PS3 giving a very solid performance in Japan.



Assuming that Wii either holds even or drops slightly next week they could actually be pretty close to tied next week. ioi has been just ever so slightly underpredicting PS3 the past few weeks plus with whatever minor boost MW2 can give should put PS3 in the 80-85k range. On a small side note, does anyone think 360 can crack 10k next week?



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^^ Yes u r right, ioi is predicting pretty correctly for PS3, but ioi has constantly over predicted Wii, so i dont think i will take his Wii prediction..
But for PS3 ioi has predicted 75k for next week.. i wander wot Wii will do? 80k, 90k, 100k.. i doubt 100k.



Here's my second weekly analysis chart.  A fair bit to note this week:

1) I'm swapping axes this time in order to put in another couple rows of predictions.  I've decided to include original predictions (which are turning out better than the revisions a lot of the time) in one row and  revised predictions in another row.  The PS3 numbers Noobie uses in his chart are original numbers.  As far as I know, ZorroX never revised his PS3 numbers so those cells are empty.

2) ZorroX is no longer on VGChartz as he has been outed as using an alternate id (he's the perma-banned crazzyman) and consequently all of his posts have been deleted.

3) In another thread, ioi has made some predictions for the next 3 weeks based on where things ended up this week.  His numbers are Wii: 110k, 160k, 210k and PS3: 75k, 175k, 135k.  These numbers are not reflected in the chart, but just for interest they represent a combined reduction of 100k Wii units (based on his revised Wii numbers).  If ioi is correct with these new numbers and the rest of his revised predictions stay the same, he is now predicting that Wii will be 237k short of the 10M goal at the end of January.  For the 10M / 5M race, it looks more and more likely that a winner won't be decided until Gran Turismo 5 is released.

WEEK ENDED DEC 6 Wii: 103,914 PS3: 52,015
Prediction Error to 10M (thru Jan 31) Prediction Error to 5M (thru Jan 31)
ioi (original) 95,000 -8,914 -8.6% -212,040 49,500 -2,515 -4.8% -341,013
ioi (revised) 155,000 +51,086 +49.2% -137,040 45,500 -6,515 -12.5% -395,263
ZorroX (original) 85,000 -18,914 -18.2% -387,040 60,500 +8,485 +16.3% -41,013
ZorroX (revised) 125,000 +21,086 +20.3% -337,040 - -   -

NOTE: "to 10M/5M (thru Jan 31)" indicates how far sales will be from the 10M/5M target if the prediction set is 100% correct from now on.

Predictions within 15%.

Predictions worse than 30%.



^^ yes winner is not going to be decided till March at the earliest.. I think this yr Jan n Feb are also going to be pretty strong with hardware sales due to some very good software lineup n i think PS3 is going to show some very good numbers starting FFXIII.



ioi should unban ZorroX when the race is over, he should be allowed to discuss the results (and even gloat a little bit, well, actually a lot, who do I want to fool, if he wins )... He can always permaban him again if he doesn't behave



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW! 
 


This is the weekly update from the Wii 10M / PS3 5M Japan race thread found here:

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=87346&page=1

1) Last weeks numbers had very small upwards adjustments for both consoles.

2) PS3 is still leading by 29.7k according to VGC, but Enterbrain released numbers this week that put Wii ahead by 27.4k.

3) This week's Wii sales put it in the range of the top 3 weeks from 2008 -- but one week earlier than the spike normally happens.  Possibly 200k+ weeks upcoming.

WEEK ENDING DEC 13 Wii to 10M PS3 to 5M Lead
LTD total 9,067,092 4,096,821 Wii: 4,970,271
Left to target 932,908 903,179 PS3: 29,729
This week (yoy) 138,853 (+50.3%) 77,669 (+141.4%) Wii: 61,184
Since race start (yoy) 530,080 (+21.6%) 499,773 (+121.8%) Wii: 30,307