Here's my second weekly analysis chart. A fair bit to note this week:
1) I'm swapping axes this time in order to put in another couple rows of predictions. I've decided to include original predictions (which are turning out better than the revisions a lot of the time) in one row and revised predictions in another row. The PS3 numbers Noobie uses in his chart are original numbers. As far as I know, ZorroX never revised his PS3 numbers so those cells are empty.
2) ZorroX is no longer on VGChartz as he has been outed as using an alternate id (he's the perma-banned crazzyman) and consequently all of his posts have been deleted.
3) In another thread, ioi has made some predictions for the next 3 weeks based on where things ended up this week. His numbers are Wii: 110k, 160k, 210k and PS3: 75k, 175k, 135k. These numbers are not reflected in the chart, but just for interest they represent a combined reduction of 100k Wii units (based on his revised Wii numbers). If ioi is correct with these new numbers and the rest of his revised predictions stay the same, he is now predicting that Wii will be 237k short of the 10M goal at the end of January. For the 10M / 5M race, it looks more and more likely that a winner won't be decided until Gran Turismo 5 is released.
| WEEK ENDED DEC 6 | Wii: 103,914 | PS3: 52,015 | ||||||
| Prediction | Error | to 10M (thru Jan 31) | Prediction | Error | to 5M (thru Jan 31) | |||
| ioi (original) | 95,000 | -8,914 | -8.6% | -212,040 | 49,500 | -2,515 | -4.8% | -341,013 |
| ioi (revised) | 155,000 | +51,086 | +49.2% | -137,040 | 45,500 | -6,515 | -12.5% | -395,263 |
| ZorroX (original) | 85,000 | -18,914 | -18.2% | -387,040 | 60,500 | +8,485 | +16.3% | -41,013 |
| ZorroX (revised) | 125,000 | +21,086 | +20.3% | -337,040 | - | - | - |
NOTE: "to 10M/5M (thru Jan 31)" indicates how far sales will be from the 10M/5M target if the prediction set is 100% correct from now on.
Predictions within 15%.
Predictions worse than 30%.
