^are you saying that like ps3 can't have price cut?, when it can have even more price cuts than the 360 in it's lifetime, the thing is even expensive ps3 have managed to double 360 sales.

quality it's important, 360 it's cheap for that reason, or lack of it.

end of 2010? never happen. by the end of the gen? probable.

with developers in no hurry to start putting out shitty games for the next gen, they are spending their time mastering the current gen. i think you can reasonably tack on 2-3 more years easily before microsoft gets jumpy for the next head start.

this christmas will really be telling in how fast the ps3 will catch the 360. if my predictions are correct (300k/wk in early november climbing to and peaking at 750k at christmas) we could see the lead shrink to around 6.5 million by years end. that's cutting a million off the lead in three months. by the end of 2010 i think we can expect the gap to be between 4.5 and 5 million.

if the ps3 does go through a robust 10 year life cycle then i think it will indeed surpass the 360's sales. the counter to this is of course that xbox will almost assuredly be on their next gen system by then. this means that they don't have to acknowledge defeat on this gen because they are in a new ballgame. that's great and all, but that secretly implies that the only way m$ can have success going up against sony is if they don't go head to head.

the ps3 is selling faster in its respective phase of its lifecycle, faster in the present, and does not look to be slowing down for a long time. yeah that's a huge win for m$.

Microsoft has a much higher ability to cut their prices than Sony.

before you try to argue against me, consider how much Sony has lost on the PS3 and how long it took for them to cut the price to 299.

well this is just ignorant.  this is precisely what happens when a hotly anticipated title releases.  why else do we see sales spikes for big releases?  coincidence?  even halo odst had a small spike.  by your logic it would have made no difference, especially since fans already had a 360 for halo3.

the truth is the franchises from the ps2 which are debuting on the ps3 will see very large spikes.  ff, gt5, and gow3 will all be system sellers.  the impact will only be seen for a couple of weeks, but that's the way the data is.    sales data is pretty predictable.  as a mathematician i think it is so interesting to study.  it's almost like the numbers have a mind of their own.

Im not sure abot that. 2010 gaming is a win for MS.

Ed: Or it can depond much if PS3 takes over japan.

Aion worded his opinion as a fact. All this guy said was how is he too sure of this? He didn't say "no you're wrong I'm right".

But hey, seeing your response to the OP, I'm not even sure I should bother going into detail.

Edit: Uber saved me the trouble.

OT: End of 2010? Only if Natal flops and Reach doesn't move consoles (which it most likely will). Hell, even then, I don't think so. However, 2011 is plausible.

I don't think PS3 will ever catch 360. EVER. I believe 100% that this generation will end the way that it is right now. I just gotta say something, and I don't mean any offense to you Kowen, or the person who is responsible for making it: That chart is the wackest thing I have ever seen. Just looking at last years holiday numbers will show you that 360 came from being behind over 1 million sales (for the year) to beating the PS3 by like 1.5 million for the year. This means that 360 outsold PS3 by almost 2 million copies in a month. The chart does not take anything like re-modeling, holidays, big releases or price cuts into consideration.

Once again, PS3 will not catch up to 360 WW, EVER. My comment stricly applies to that chart.

A lot of people like to throw around numbers like the fact that the PS3 has to outsell the 360 by 113,000 units per week and simply leave it at that without doing the math in their head and realising that that is very possible.

PS3 will definitely not outsell the 360 by 113,000 units every week, however every week that the PS3 exceeds that number brings that weekly average down. The weeks of Uncharted 2's release, the 3 weeks surrounding Black Friday, the week of Final Fantasy XIII's releae in both Japan and the west, the week of Gran Turismo 5's release; All theses weeks are ones where the PS3 is likely going to outsell the 360 by a lot more than 113,000 and every time it does, it will bring down the ammount that it has to outsell the 360 during the off weeks.

Now people will say that it's impossible because Microsoft will have a price drop and Natal. Well, what if Natal doesn't become a huge system seller? The only way I can see Natal becoming really successful is if Microsoft bundles it with every 360, however for them to do this would mean that the 360 probably wouldn't be having a price cut. Also, what about Sony? What if Sony rolls out a massive ad campaign for their wands and they recieve a plethora of third-party support before Natal even arrives? Also what if Sony decides to price cut alongside Microsoft? It's certainly possible. Sony definitely has much more room to cut price at $299 than Microsoft does at $199 (179 in EU and JP).

I'm not saying that PS3 is likely to outsell the 360 in worldwide sales by the end of 2010, but if Sony manages to counter any success Natal has or match any price cut for the 360, then it's more than just possible.

In Q4 2008, everything seemed to go right for the 360 and everything seemed to go wrong for the PS3. In that scenario, the 360 outsold the PS3 by 2 million units (actually only 1.875 million but I will round up). If we completely reverse the scenario, and the PS3 makes up 2 million units for Q4 2009 and 2010 then we still have 3.47 million units to go out of the current 7.47 million unit gap.

That leaves Sony 9 slow months to make up the other 3.47 million. That would require the PS3 to sell around 385,000 more units per month than the 360. This would be for the time period from Jan '10 to Sept '10.

I just don't see Microsoft allowing Sony to completely dominate two holiday seasons in a row. I also don't see the PS3 taking off like that month after month in the slow time of the year. The PS3 has not won a year against the 360 yet. This prediction just isn't going to come true.

That wasn't the point of that post. It's meant to point out that the PS3 must consistently outsell the 360 by over 100,000 units each week for very, very long periods of time in order to catch up to the 360. It's accepted that it will do so some weeks, and not do so on others.

Let us take your examples. If the PS3 outsells the 360 on a worldwide basis by an average of 300,000 on each of those five occasions* it would still be about six million units in the hole. Is it possible to overcome that gap by the end of 2010? I suppose. Is it even remotely plausible? I'm pretty sure we have different answers there.

*For the record, I think the only one that gives it even a semblance of such an opportunity is Final Fantasy's Japanese release, and I don't think it will come anywhere near that high then either.