Looking at historical trends of 1 console?  C'mon man!

How is the Wii advantage the games?  Don't the other consoles have games as well?  Yes, I am being sarcastic, but you aren't really making any point here.  Many people prefer the games on the PS3, Wii or Xbox 360, and still other like DS or PC games best.  

As for the price advantage, I agree with you, the problem is the competitors were too expensive.  This will not be true by 2011.  Wii has outsold the 360 despite average price parity because it offered motion controls, which was a new innovation.  With Natal coming out next year, 360 will have their own innovation, which is the most advanced hands free controller.  Also, 1 Natal will offer playability for 4 people.

Flash storage is not cheaper byte for byte.  An SSD of around 16 GB will cost around $50, where a 1 TB HDD will cost around 75.  Yes you could get flash memory for cheaper, but is will not be faster than an HDD.

Yes you could emulate the GC controller but why bother?  The GC is simply not important enough of a selling point.  There is no doubt it could be done, but to the extent that it add even $10 dollars to the price of the console, why bother?

Ok I get you.

THIS IS WHY I DON'T LIKE HISTORICAL ARGUMENTS IN THE FRST PLACE.

I don't like them. I don't believe in them. Take away nr2 ok?

Historical arguments are tough because what about the Jaguar and the 3DO and all those consoles? Which one's count? Know what I mean? It's a friggin pain in the neck.

It's not true that "historical trends don't make any sense". 

For example, as I already said, historically it is always the most popular console of a generation that is kept on the market for the longest time.

Now, that does make sense, because there is a proper common cause for popularity and longevity, and that is momentum.  

It would be stupid to say that it is the branding on the box that somehow gives them extra longevity, but it doesn't mean that longevity is totally random, and past generations couldn't give an indication in some way.

Reasons for:
- Their software team will have new hardware to work with.
- Their software team will have a new controller to work with.
- The hype Sony and MS are able to garner with their new controllers will be overwhelmed by Nintendo's hype of a new console and new controller.
- Third parties will port existing motion controlled games over to PS3 and 360, and launch new motion controlled games simultaneously on Wii, PS3 and 360 starting next year.
- Nintendo will be able to sell the new hardware at a profit, assuming they use tech comparable to what the PS3 has now.
- Consumers will need to buy all new controllers
- Nintendo will be able to sell some games at the $60 price price point if they choose.
- Nintendo can still continue selling the Wii at the same time

Reasons not to?

@Alterego

"as I already said, historically it is always the most popular console of a generation that is kept on the market for the longest time"

My referring to 'historical trends' and yours is obviously different. You see in this example you're looking at it from a predictive point of view (i.e how we would see it) while I'm looking at it from Nintendo's point of view.

OF COURSE accurate predictions can be made based on history. I'm only referring to Nintendo's strategy and how that relates with the history of the market.

This is the sum and substance of my point: Nintendo won't make decisions such as whether to launch first or not simply based on what it's done in the past. That's all.

Actually it was Xbox, then GameCube.

Xbox Launch: November 15, 2001

GCN Launch: November 17, 2001

I am such a nerd.

Don't tell yourself that Snesboy. I'm sure there are many people who remember exactly when every console ever launched.

Wait, no there isn't.

Wii's 'advantage is games' is simply because Nintendo Internal released 5x as many games (and better quality games) in the first 2 years than on the GC.  By the time we already had Zelda: Twilight Princess, Super Paper Mario, WarioWare Touched, Mario Kart Wii, Smash Bros Brawl, Mario Galaxy, etc....what did the GC have?  Pretty much Pikmin, Smash Bros Melee, Animal Crossing and a few third party titles, with the promise of more to come later.  In other words, Nintendo made the Wii about gaming from the beginning.  And they're still producing good games at a rate that is far surpassing the GC (and may surpass the N64).

As for Nintendo not having a price advantage and 'unique' advantage in the next gen...why not?  MS is banking on Natal to be their answer.  How do we know Nintendo isn't developing something even more interesting?  Or if Nintendo is even going to focus on Motion controls with their next console?  Or if Natal will fizzle and never catch on with XBOX fans and developers (a very strong possibility).  There's too many variables to say that Nintendo is at a clear disadvantage next to Natal right now.

As for GC compatibility, I agree, it'll probably be gone in the next console. 

OK, I'll concede that Nintendo has been more productive on Wii than they were on GC. That the competing consoles also have great games is the point I am trying to make. And yes Nintendo could create a new device (motion controlled or otherwise to your point) that will blow them all away. It just seems that there are already a lot of controller peripherals. Sony and Microsoft are offering new experiences to their users, and are offering the same options as Nintendo with better graphics to potential users. I think Nintendo needs to do something to counter, and the best way is to launch the WiiHD.

@catofellow: I doubt couple of lines of codes that map GC controller buttons to a controller such as/specifically to Classic controller would raise the price much. Since Wii and Gamecube share so much in common, it would be stupid not to make GC compatibility if you're making the new console compatible with Wii.

Obviously, games libraries of the two HD consoles don't hold a candle to Wii games library, so pointing them out is rather useless.
When Sony and M$ put their motion controllers out, Wii has huge library of motion controlled games and the competition has none. Considering how well 3rd parties have managed to do with motion controls, it's obvious that they're not easilly done well, which is also expected with PS Wand and Natal. And since the controls aren't default, expect lots of tacked on controls.

@Snesboy: Obviously not as nerdy as i am, Gamecube release was september 14 2001.