Well done, you told us what we've known for a little over two years now.

And another thing- VERY few analysts predicted Wii = 360 = PS3. Most said PS3 >= 360 >>> Wii.

Take out the 55 million wii sports, and 25 million wii fit sales

There's a three way tie? I didn't know that.

Anyway, I'm glad the industry has grown this much. I don't really care who wins next gen, as long as there's a clear winner who gets 80% + of the support. Consoles are not fucking cheap and havbing to buy all three of them to get the full gen experience is not cool.

I think the PS3 will pull out into 2nd but Nintendo will come stay on top. The PS3 slim had such a big effect I gotta think theres a lot of demand for PS3's.

The PS2 + xbox + gamecube = 160 million sales (rough figures), now we are at about 110 million consoles. I know the console market has been growning exponentially but it's not going to grow so much that the PS3 can be considered a winner. The PS2 won with a 75% marketshare, that is not going to happen again. I'm sure there are millions of mainstream gamers left but I doubt millions of core gamers are still on the lastgen consoles. So if anyone is going to go anywhere near that 75% then it's the Wii, unless Natal and the PS-Wand become hits. But if that happens then none of the consoles will have 50% of the market.

The OP is a nice utopia. The truth is much harsher.

At this stage in the generation, MS would be a fool to let the second place slip out of their hands. They certainly have the means and the money to bring X360 safely to the second place. PS3 Slim was released way too early in the game, leaving Sony with even less options to excite the buyer later on. If GT5 and GoW3 doesn't get the job done, Sony will be left in the dust. MS has already done a nice job neutralizing GT5 effect with Forza3, atleast for the western market, and they will even have the time to announce Forza4 (if they feel like they want to make another for X360) before GT5 reaches US market.

Nintendo will watch this in the full comfort of the first place. Things are going well for them, even without major 3rd party support, but titles such as MH3 and the new dragon quest will help them on the Japanese market. They have the strongest first party out of all three, some strong supporters such as sega, ubi and capcom. But they could win the generation relying just on their first party products. Lots of hinted/unannounced games will keep the gamers happy, and they could easily drop the price to $100 if they feel like it.

Things are far away from a three way tie. The current surge in the PS3 sales is normal, considering Sony launched a fully revisited model. If it continues to beat Wii and Xbox360 by a large margin for half of a year, this thread would make some sense. At this time, it's just a PS3 fans dream.

Whoever wins, we lose.

yeah, i forgot that the wii play is still in the top ten, 3 years running.

i think everyone has established a name for themselves and i dont think any console can win because each and every console has establised their own brand. As you can see majoirty of the developers are devloping for both HD consoles except for the exclusive deals brought out by sony or microsoft. Wii is not getting ignored with many games being developed exclusivly aimed towards the wii's main users. The only way one can grab the lead is from exclusive content which i think all three companies will hit hard, head on, so the only way one is going to decide the difference is whether they like halo or god of war, wii motion or the wand and all the tiny differences from each console. Overall i dont see any console winning, but as the competition is getting more fierce i see the

Very winnable. There's a certain class of 3rd party development that Wii will never get, but the exclusives are overwhelming going to Wii (if we consider the race as one between three competitors). Wii has won, though 2nd place is still up in the air, but for now it looks like Microsoft will be able to hold on.