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Forums - Sales - Why I predict First Week JPN FF13 sales to be 1.6 million

FinalEvangelion on 27 September 2009

I'm a delusional and stupid Sony fanboy blah blah blah (even though I do like Nintendo).  Now that that's out of the way, let's look at some the historical sales of Final Fantasy 7 and 10 when they first came out because they were first on PS1 and PS2, respectively.

 

Final Fantasy VII Japanese first week #s

PS1 Hardware Install Base Japan:  5.2 million

Final Fantasy VII Software First Week Sales Japan:  2.03 million software


Final Fantasy 10 Japanese first week #s

PS2 Hardware Install Base Japan:  5.1 million

Final Fantasy X First Week Sales Japan:  1.91 million software


Average Hardware Install Install Base Japan at FF Release:  5.15 million

Average Final Fantasy First Week Sales Japan:  1.97 million

Average Attach Ratio First Week Japan for FF Release:  38.2%

Moving on to PS3 / Final Fantasy XIII Release

Projected Conservative Estimate of PS3 Install Base in Japan at time of FF13 Release:  4 million

38.2% of 4 million = 1.53 million

 

Conclusion:  I expect the attach rate this time around first week to be a bit higher because FF13 is a reason for many Japanese to buy a PS3 where the PS1 and PS2 sold to a wider demographic, so that's why I'm saying 1.6 million.  The reason it would sell much lower first week would be if the franchise declined in popularity - but I don't see that as the case in Japan like it would be in the West.

 

Finally, I do think the LTD sales will be considerably lower than previous installments of FF7 and FF10, respectively.



"Naturally the common people don't want war: Neither in Russia, nor in England, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, IT IS THE LEADERS of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy, or a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is TELL THEM THEY ARE BEING ATTACKED, and denounce the peacemakers for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. IT WORKS THE SAME IN ANY COUNTRY."  --Hermann Goering, leading Nazi party member, at the Nuremberg War Crime Trials 

 

Conservatives:  Pushing for a small enough government to be a guest in your living room, or even better - your uterus.

 

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Carl on 27 September 2009

I agree with this OP.



                            

tedsteriscool on 27 September 2009

Very logical, and quite possible. This FF has a lot more hype than the previous ones, though (besides VII, but that had the most hype after it launched, not before).

*I say 2 million, have been saying it since E3 2006. Feel free to quote, non-believers!



darthdevidem01 on 27 September 2009

I totally agree with the OP!



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

Snake612 on 27 September 2009

Final Fantasy series is huge in Japan! I think the first week sales will be 2 million copies sold.



TO GOD BE THE GLORY

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sc94597 on 27 September 2009

That seems just about what it should do. I don't expect much legs though. Still great sales for any Jrpg or even console game in Japan. It won't be succeeded as the best selling 3rd party Japanese console game until DQX.



Avinash_Tyagi on 27 September 2009

Thing is, is FF as popular now as it was back then? FFX-2 sold only 2.41 million in Japan, and FF12 only 2.42 million lifetime, on a much larger base.

In addition Famitsu is predicting a less than 1 million first shipment, so even getting enough software out to do 1.6 million first week is unlikely



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

darthdevidem01 on 27 September 2009
sc94597 said:

That seems just about what it should do. I don't expect much legs though. Still great sales for any Jrpg or even console game in Japan. It won't be succeeded as the best selling 3rd party Japanese console game until DQX counting only japan sales

 WW FF13 will outsell DQX 2:1



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

sc94597 on 27 September 2009
darthdevidem01 said:
sc94597 said:

That seems just about what it should do. I don't expect much legs though. Still great sales for any Jrpg or even console game in Japan. It won't be succeeded as the best selling 3rd party Japanese console game until DQX counting only japan sales

 WW FF13 will outsell DQX 2:1

I believed I listed it as "Japanese console game" for a reason. Worldwide Mario & Sonic at the Olympics won't be suceeded by FFXIII. Not on one console, nor on two. Also if DQIX is pushed in the West like Nintendo is trying to push it, X might sell more than what you may think. If X sells close to IX in Japan + better than average U.S sales I think there is a chance that DQX *may* outsell FFXIII on one platform. Either way FFXIII won't sell the 10mil you are thinking. I would say 6 or 7 mil at the most depending on how well the 360 audience accepts it.



Avinash_Tyagi on 27 September 2009
darthdevidem01 said:
sc94597 said:

That seems just about what it should do. I don't expect much legs though. Still great sales for any Jrpg or even console game in Japan. It won't be succeeded as the best selling 3rd party Japanese console game until DQX counting only japan sales

 WW FF13 will outsell DQX 2:1

FF12 sold only 5.11 million WW, on a much larger base, so the likelihood that 13 will be able to outsell DQX 2 to 1 WW is small



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)