I typically try not to post my thoughts in the thread because I don't want to skew anybody's vote.  But it seems like all of the comments don't think it will be much of a contest.  But I think people are underestimating/forgetting how much the release of Mario Kart Wii helped Mario Kart DS. Mario Kart Wii has been released for 77 weeks, so here is a chart for sales of Mario Kart DS in weeks 11-88(so that numbers aren't skewed by the launch) and for the 77 weeks since Mario Kart Wii has been released.

So if proportionally, New Super Mario Bros. Wii helps NSMB DS like Mario Kart Wii Helped MK DS then in the 77 weeks after the launch of NSMB Wii, NSMB DS will have sold 11 million more copies bringing its total over 30 million. Now I don't really think the impact will be that large, but if NSMB Wii can help NSMB DS half that much, or ~5.5 million, I think Mario Kart Wii might have a hard time outselling it. Does that change anybody's opinion, or do you just think New Super Mario Bros. Wii won't have the same type of impact?

Did MKWii really boost MKDS? Let's see.

MKDS sales:

First 52 weeks: 5.24M

Next 52 weeks: 3.01M

Next 52 weeks:  3.5M (Mario Kart Wii launched in the middle here)

Next 52 weeks: ~ 4.2M

NSMB sales:

First 52 weeks: 9.6M

Next 52 weeks: 4.2M

Next 52 weeks:  4.6M

 And if you look at mostly all the other of the DS' evergreen titles - this is happening!

Year 3 is larger than year 2, and year 4 is larger than year 3. Or well, close to, for most of them. In other words; MKDS was NOT as boosted by MKWii as you seem to think.

And I think using just last week as an example is poorly based too. I'd rather estimate a bit.

NSMB will sell  around 4-4.25 million this year.

MKWii will sell ~ 8M in 2009.

The DS cannot keep going forever. It is likely that NSMB will start declining at the same rate as MKWii, or larger, within a few years. How large a lead will MKWii be able to get by that time?

Well, quite a lot.

Assume that MKWii sells 50% more than NSMB in this holiday. That's somewhat lower than what I believe. NSMB is tracking somewhat lower than it did last year (2.25 vs 2.5M), so let's assume it only sells 1.75M from now on and out, rather than the 2M it sold last year.

If MKWii adds 50% to that, that's a 0.9M eat on the gap. This will make the gap ~ 1M.

Realistically, I see MKWii selling 5-6M next year. NSMB should be at 4M esque. NSMB is dropping a bit, NSMB Wii may boost it a bit, but not a lot. MKWii could outdo 5-6M if it becomes "platinum range" or something, but that could boost NSMB too. MKWii could drop less than I assume, and sell 7M too. But this is getting a bit speculative. MKWii has dropped lately, but that may be because the Wii HW has dropped. If the pricedrop boosts it up again, MKWii will follow. That could easily lead to a large boost for MKWii, making it hit more than 7M next year.

Anyway, pessimistically, for MKWii, it will pass NSMB Wii by the end of next year. There's pretty much no chance of that not happening, and a 1M lead is more realistic than a virtual tie.

I don't see how NSMB could outsell MKWii, or how one could think so after looking at the numbers.

@ Pineapple, wow I've asked people to elaborate with their posts and you certainly did that.  I'm not saying that I actually think New Super Mario Bros. will outsell Mario Kart Wii, I just don't think it is as clear cut as other people posting seemed to think.

 I'm not sure how your numbers show that Mario Kart Wii didn't boost Mario Kart DS. I think the fact that the 4th 52 week period being higher than all but the 1st year is because people bought Mario Kart Wii and played it, but then after playing for awhile wanted more Mario Kart which led them to pick up Mario Kart DS in the second half of year three and year four.  I.e. I don't think that the the increase in sales for New Super Mario Bros. DS will be immediate after the launch of the Wii title, but instead after people have played and enjoyed NSMB Wii they will pick up the DS title as well. Also, I haven't looked up, but was NSMB DS not bundled in its third year for the first time? Which would explain why the game saw its increase in the 3rd year, and not part of some trend on the DS.

Also your assumption that the DS will have to stop selling before the Wii does, I'm wondering why you think that is.  The DS continues to outsell the Wii by large amounts each week, and has done so without a recent price cut, or many high profile releases.

For not using only one week of data, that is why I also included the second column with the average weekly sales over the last month.

Finally, I think in addition to New Super Mario Bros. Wii helping NSMB DS, New Super Mario Bros. Wii might actually hurt Mario Kart Wii. Before Wii Sports Resort, Mario Kart Wii was basically the last high profile game released on the system along with Wii Fit.  Now that this holiday has Wii Sports Resort, Wii Fit +, and New Super Mario Bros. Wii, I think the people who had been picking up Mario Kart Wii with the system, might pick up one of those new titles instead. 

And just to emphasize, I'm not saying that I think that is what will happen, just that it is a possibility.

I say Mario Kart Wii will outsell NSMB, unless NSMB get's bundled again then it won't but I don't think that will happen.
Also NSMB might get a boost by the Wii version but I don't think it will get too much of a boost, because MKDS was also advertised at the end of the commercials, let's see if Ninty will do the same with NSMB.

I need more votes/comments. How about people start also posting their predictions for total sales when the games are done selling? Also maybe if you think Mario Kart Wii will pass New Super Mario Bros, how long it will take for it to pass it.

Actually, you may have a point in the DS not stopping selling before the Wii. I just naturally assumed that, but it may very well have been wrong.

That would flaw my "analysis" (if you can call it that. Hypothesis might be a better word) up. Sorry if I seemed a bit aggressive in my post, that was by no means my intention.

If I look at it a bit simple. The two major changes that we know of are:

- The effect of the Wii price cut

- The effect of NSMB Wii.

I have little doubt that the effect of the price cut will be more of a boost for MKWii than NSMB Wii will have on NSMB DS.

I tend to like predicting by quarters of years. My MKWii predictions for this year were (these are, of course, the averages I expected, not the minimums as some people tend to predict)

150K/week for the first 26 weeks = 3.9M

100K/week for the next 13 weeks = 1.3M

Last 13 weeks: 3.5M

Total for 2009: 8.7M

It's not meeting my expectations, though. It looks to end at 4.5M for the first 39 weeks, rather than 5.2M. But the case is that the evergreen titles are directly linked to the hardware sales of their machine.

The Wii has been underperforming. Even moreso than MKWii, actually. If the price cut boosts the Wii's HW sales back up to the early 09/all of 08 sales, will that boost MKWii up to 125K/week again?

I think it might. Although MKWii will now have more competition than before (NSMB Wii is a direct competitor to MKWii, as you correctly said).

Another thing to note, is that hardly any games see a boost again. They drop with the HW sales, but they don't increase again when the hardware sales increase.  Although we do have lacking data on this, so that may be incorrect.

If MKWii does boost, we could be seeing a "120K vs 50K" pr week scenario. As I expect a mere million in advance by the end of the year, that would mean that it will happen in early Q2.

You can put me down for Q2, if that's not too unprecise.

I think that these two games are likely to become the best selling games (save the Wii Play/Sports) of the generation. NSMB should end in the 28-33M group, whereas I see Mario Kart Wii in the 30-40M range (40M being rather unlikely).

Mario Kart wii, Although it depends on whether NSMB gets bundled with the dsi or not.

@ Pineapple you didn't seem aggressive, I appreciated your well thought out analysis, getting people to think about sales is the point of these threads.

Anybody else have thoughts/comments, I usually post the articles in the am EST time, but today this article won't go up for another 12 hours or so, so still have time to get your votes and comments in.