Did MKWii really boost MKDS? Let's see.
MKDS sales:
First 52 weeks: 5.24M
Next 52 weeks: 3.01M
Next 52 weeks: 3.5M (Mario Kart Wii launched in the middle here)
Next 52 weeks: ~ 4.2M
NSMB sales:
First 52 weeks: 9.6M
Next 52 weeks: 4.2M
Next 52 weeks: 4.6M
And if you look at mostly all the other of the DS' evergreen titles - this is happening!
Year 3 is larger than year 2, and year 4 is larger than year 3. Or well, close to, for most of them. In other words; MKDS was NOT as boosted by MKWii as you seem to think.
And I think using just last week as an example is poorly based too. I'd rather estimate a bit.
NSMB will sell around 4-4.25 million this year.
MKWii will sell ~ 8M in 2009.
The DS cannot keep going forever. It is likely that NSMB will start declining at the same rate as MKWii, or larger, within a few years. How large a lead will MKWii be able to get by that time?
Well, quite a lot.
Assume that MKWii sells 50% more than NSMB in this holiday. That's somewhat lower than what I believe. NSMB is tracking somewhat lower than it did last year (2.25 vs 2.5M), so let's assume it only sells 1.75M from now on and out, rather than the 2M it sold last year.
If MKWii adds 50% to that, that's a 0.9M eat on the gap. This will make the gap ~ 1M.
Realistically, I see MKWii selling 5-6M next year. NSMB should be at 4M esque. NSMB is dropping a bit, NSMB Wii may boost it a bit, but not a lot. MKWii could outdo 5-6M if it becomes "platinum range" or something, but that could boost NSMB too. MKWii could drop less than I assume, and sell 7M too. But this is getting a bit speculative. MKWii has dropped lately, but that may be because the Wii HW has dropped. If the pricedrop boosts it up again, MKWii will follow. That could easily lead to a large boost for MKWii, making it hit more than 7M next year.
Anyway, pessimistically, for MKWii, it will pass NSMB Wii by the end of next year. There's pretty much no chance of that not happening, and a 1M lead is more realistic than a virtual tie.
I don't see how NSMB could outsell MKWii, or how one could think so after looking at the numbers.
