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Forums - Sales Discussion - Wii 10 mln. or PS3 5 mln. in Japan. Who first?

saicho on 18 November 2009
ZorroX said:
jarrod said:
ZorroX said:
jarrod said:
ChrisIsNotSexy said:

I see the Ps3 going 4 million+ after holidays.

Even lifetime, that seems a bit tough.  I mean, it's only selling about as well as a "failed" Wii in it's absolute best year, I'm not sure you can really expect the machine to double it's userbase after 3 years on market.  Saturn didn't, N64 didn't, GameCube didn't, and those are the platforms whose JP sales align most closely with PS3 (GC slightly under, N64/SS a bit ahead).

FFXIII is PS3's biggest game, I'm not sure there's anything possible on the horizon that to keep it from being downhill afterwards.  Maybe FFXV?  It's not getting DQ or MH...

Actually, PS3 will be 4M+ already by the end of November and probably 4.5M+ by the end of this year.

Saturn, N64, GC didn`t have such great 3rd party support as PS3 has. For 2010 alone:

FFXIV, SO4 International, Front Mission Evolved, Yakuza 4, Ar Tonelico 3, Trinity: Zill'Ol, Nier, Lost Planet 2, Dead Rising 2, Super Street Fighter 4, Metal Gear Solid Rising, Sengoku Basara 3, Castlevania: Lords of Shadows, Dinasty Warriors: Troy, First of the North Star, End of Eternity, FFXIIIv, White Album, Last Rebellion, Quantum Theory, RE5: Alternate Edition.

And that are only announced games. Not to mention 1st and 2nd party PS3 games. GT5 also will keep PS3 momentum.

Sorry, I think I misread the original statement... I thought he meant PS3 would go on to sell 4+ million after 2009, not that the install base would be 4+ million when the year ends.  Being between 4-4.5m this year is pretty much expected, I agree with that.

Saturn also had pretty good 3rd party support in Japan (from Capcom, Konami, SNK, ESP and Bandai especially).  Saturn, N64 and GC also all had far stronger 1st party support than PS3 does.   GT5's a wildcard, but it's not on level with FFXIII, and neither is anything else coming to PS3... really, it's just downhill after December...

And after 2009 PS3 will sell 4M+ even before the end of 2012. Only thing, that was holding PS3 back was a price. Now price is affordable and sales have stabilized at 30k+. They are not going below that level for 90% of 2010.

Saturn didn`t have big hitters like FFVII, MGS and GT. All it had, was Sonic. That was not enough. Same goes for N64 and GC, only that they had Mario and less 3rd party support. PS3 has much stronger 1st/2nd party support than GC&N64 had combined.

In terms of 1st/2nd party support PS3 is above Saturn/N64/GC. In terms of 3rd party support PS3 is above Saturn/N64/GC. The only PS3 problem was a price.

PS3 will stabilize at 30k+ for rest 2010 because of games, that i listed above. There are over 20 3rd party games alone. PS3 practically will be getting a new game every 2 weeks. How can it decline??

Why i`m so confident in 2010 PS3 sales? 1 year ago PS3 sales in Japan went below 20k before holidays and after 80Gb bundled with GT5P model release. This year(in Autumn), PS3 sales stay strong around 30k+ level.

So you are saying PS3 will only have 5 weeks of sub 30K sales in 2010 in Japan. I'll bet that won't happen even with all the "momentum" PS3 has.



MikeB predicts that the PS3 will sell about 140 million units by the end of 2016 and triple the amount of 360s in the long run.

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ViolentPhlegm on 18 November 2009

@Edouble 24: 1,157,157 according to VGC, including the Jan 4 numbers. 7 weeks of numbers still to be added.



Edouble24 on 18 November 2009

Thanks. I expect that number to be a good deal higher with the holiday season. 8 million isn't out of the question at all.



ZorroX on 18 November 2009

@jarrod, one game is not enough.
There must be several big games for success in Japan.

Again, strong support =/= big sales, but a lot of games. And PS3 owns Saturn/N64/GC in terms of quantity and quality of 1st/2nd party games. Though, most games are west oriented.

Also, +-5k i count as around 30k+ levels. I mean, 27-28k it`s still around 30k+.
I don`t expect PS3 to go below 25k for 5 weeks in Japan during 2010.

@saicho, i don`t make bets for half a year or a year. That would take to much time for waiting.



jarrod on 18 November 2009

To put things in context, PS3 sold about 3.5m in it's first 3 years. Saturn sold about 5m in the same comparable timespan.

PS3's on the rise now, but sales are accelerated by the slim+price drop (encouraging both new AND repeat buyers) and probably the best year of software releases it'll ever see (FFXIII, RE5, Vesperia, Yakuza 3, etc). PS3 selling more than 8 million by the end of 2012 would be an absolute best case scenario. Consoles tend to hit a peak, and PS3 won't move 1.5m+ annually for the next 3 years running. PS3 does have an advantage in this cycle being lengthened though, something that prematurely cut off sales of other secondary consoles like Saturn or GameCube.

If anything, I'd say Wii's more likely to rebound after this year than PS3. It still has the biggest console game yet in the wings (DQX, which will likely almost double FFXIII's sales), it has a stronger upcoming 1st party lineup (Galaxy 2, Other M, Zelda vs GT5, WKC2) and has only just had it's first pricedrop and alternate color in the past few months. Lots of potential.



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Mummelmann on 18 November 2009
SOLIDSNAKE08 said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:

^It'll probably be PS3 slightly ahead until the last week of November or first week of December, then Wii will ramp up ahead


wii wont be ramping up any where with final fantasy around the corner, this is ps3's holiday in japan.

Aren't you paying attention? FFXIII will be a flop!



ZorroX on 18 November 2009

Yeah, but PS3 cost 40k+ yen all these 3 years.
Now, it cost 30k, and it`s yet to reach 25k and 20k price point.

Price(and lack of huge games) was the only factor, which was holding PS3 from selling good.
In 2010 again:

FFXIV, SO4 International, Front Mission Evolved, Yakuza 4, Ar Tonelico 3, Trinity: Zill'Ol, Nier, Lost Planet 2, Dead Rising 2, Super Street Fighter 4, Metal Gear Solid Rising, Sengoku Basara 3, Castlevania: Lords of Shadows, Dinasty Warriors: Troy, First of the North Star, End of Eternity, FFXIIIv, White Album, Last Rebellion, Quantum Theory, RE5: Alternate Edition, Gran Turismo 5, The Last Guardian.

How is that a worse software lineup compared to 2009???
2010 will be peak PS3 year to date.

PS3 is the only HD console in Japan to chose for Japanese. And HD market is yet to be saturated.
There are a lot of potential for PS3 in Japan. It had problem, because of price, but not anymore. PS3 is a PS2 succesor after all. People didn`t forget ps2, they are yet to jump on PS3.



jarrod on 18 November 2009
ZorroX said:
@jarrod, one game is not enough.
There must be several big games for success in Japan.

Again, strong support =/= big sales, but a lot of games. And PS3 owns Saturn/N64/GC in terms of quantity and quality of 1st/2nd party games. Though, most games are west oriented.

Also, +-5k i count as around 30k+ levels. I mean, 27-28k it`s still around 30k+.
I don`t expect PS3 to go below 25k for 5 week in Japan during 2010.

@saicho, i don`t make bets for half a year or a year. That would take to much time for waiting.

lol, no.  Both the past 2 gens, Sega and Nintendo's "losing" console have absolutely raped PS3 1st party wise.  This isn't opinion, it's fact.

If 250k is the cutoff point for 1st/2nd party (1st 3 years only)... 

 

Sega Saturn

  • Virtua Fighter 2
  • Virtua Fighter Remix
  • Fighter's Megamix
  • Sega Rally Championship
  • Panzer Dragoon
  • Virtua Cop
  • J-League Pro Soccer Club Tsukorou! 2
  • NiGHTS... into dreams
  • Shinseiki Evangelion 2nd Impression
  • Fighting Vipers
  • Sakura Taisen
  • Enemy Zero
  • Virtual On: Cybertroopers
  • Panzer Dragoon II Zwei
  • Decathlete
  • Dragon Force
  • Puyo Puyo 2
  • Puyo Puyo Sun

 

Nintendo 64

  • Mario Kart 64
  • Super Mario 64
  • Super Smash Bros.
  • The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
  • Pokemon Stadium
  • Yoshi's Story
  • Hey You Pikachu!
  • Mario Party
  • Pokemon Stadium 2
  • Diddy Kong Racing
  • Star Fox 64
  • Pokemon Snap
  • Mario Golf
  • Banjo-Kazooie

 

Dreamcast

  • Sonic Adventure
  • Seaman
  • Sega Rally 2
  • Shenmue
  • Virtua Fighter 3tb
  • Sakura Taisen 3
  • J-League Pro Soccer Club Tsukorou!
  • Sakura Taisen 4

 

GameCube

  • Super Smash Bros. Brawl
  • Mario Party 4
  • Mario Kart: Double Dash!!
  • Super Mario Galaxy
  • The Legend of Zelda: The Win Waker
  • Mario Party 5
  • Pokemon Colosseum
  • Animal Crossing
  • Pikmin
  • Pikmin 2
  • Donkey Konga
  • Kirby Air Ride
  • Paper Mario: The Tousand Year Door
  • Wario Ware Inc.: Mega Party Game$
  • Animal Crossing e+
  • Luigi's Mansion
  • Pokemon XD: Gale of Darkness
  • Star Fox Adventures

 

PlayStation 3

  • Hot Shots Golf: Out of Bounds
  • White Knight Chronicles
  • Gran Turismo 5 Prologue Spec III


jarrod on 18 November 2009
ZorroX said:

Yeah, but PS3 cost 40k+ yen all these 3 years.
Now, it cost 30k, and it`s yet to reach 25k and 20k price point.

Price(and lack of huge games) was the only factor, which was holding PS3 from selling good.
In 2010 again:

FFXIV, SO4 International, Front Mission Evolved, Yakuza 4, Ar Tonelico 3, Trinity: Zill'Ol, Nier, Lost Planet 2, Dead Rising 2, Super Street Fighter 4, Metal Gear Solid Rising, Sengoku Basara 3, Castlevania: Lords of Shadows, Dinasty Warriors: Troy, First of the North Star, End of Eternity, FFXIIIv, White Album, Last Rebellion, Quantum Theory, RE5: Alternate Edition, Gran Turismo 5, The Last Guardian.

How is that a worse software lineup compared to 2009???
2010 will be peak PS3 year to date.

PS3 is the only HD console in Japan to chose for Japanese. And HD market is yet to be saturated.
There are a lot of potential for PS3 in Japan. It had problem, because of price, but not anymore. PS3 is a PS2 succesor after all. People didn`t forget ps2, they are yet to jump on PS3.

Price is overrated.  Saturn was 40k+ yen initially too, and it still did way better than PS3.

FFXIII+Yakuza 3+RE5+Vesperia will probably outsell all your bolded titles combined.  And FFvsXIII and MGS Rising possibly aren't even 2010.

Consoles are out, handheld are in.  DS is really the PS2's successor.



ZorroX on 18 November 2009
jarrod said:
ZorroX said:
@jarrod, one game is not enough.
There must be several big games for success in Japan.

Again, strong support =/= big sales, but a lot of games. And PS3 owns Saturn/N64/GC in terms of quantity and quality of 1st/2nd party games. Though, most games are west oriented.

Also, +-5k i count as around 30k+ levels. I mean, 27-28k it`s still around 30k+.
I don`t expect PS3 to go below 25k for 5 week in Japan during 2010.

@saicho, i don`t make bets for half a year or a year. That would take to much time for waiting.

Both the past 2 gens, Sega and Nintendo's "losing" console have absolutely raped PS3 1st party wise. This isn't opinion, it's fact.

1st/2nd party ...  

Sega Saturn

  • Virtua Fighter 2
  • Virtua Fighter Remix
  • Fighter's Megamix
  • Sega Rally Championship
  • Panzer Dragoon
  • Virtua Cop
  • J-League Pro Soccer Club Tsukorou! 2
  • NiGHTS... into dreams
  • Shinseiki Evangelion 2nd Impression
  • Fighting Vipers
  • Sakura Taisen
  • Enemy Zero
  • Virtual On: Cybertroopers
  • Panzer Dragoon II Zwei
  • Decathlete
  • Dragon Force
  • Puyo Puyo 2
  • Puyo Puyo Sun

 

Nintendo 64

  • Mario Kart 64
  • Super Mario 64
  • Super Smash Bros.
  • The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
  • Pokemon Stadium
  • Yoshi's Story
  • Hey You Pikachu!
  • Mario Party
  • Pokemon Stadium 2
  • Diddy Kong Racing
  • Star Fox 64
  • Pokemon Snap
  • Mario Golf
  • Banjo-Kazooie

 

Dreamcast

  • Sonic Adventure
  • Seaman
  • Sega Rally 2
  • Shenmue
  • Virtua Fighter 3tb
  • Sakura Taisen 3
  • J-League Pro Soccer Club Tsukorou!
  • Sakura Taisen 4

 

GameCube

  • Super Smash Bros. Brawl
  • Mario Party 4
  • Mario Kart: Double Dash!!
  • Super Mario Galaxy
  • The Legend of Zelda: The Win Waker
  • Mario Party 5
  • Pokemon Colosseum
  • Animal Crossing
  • Pikmin
  • Pikmin 2
  • Donkey Konga
  • Kirby Air Ride
  • Paper Mario: The Tousand Year Door
  • Wario Ware Inc.: Mega Party Game$
  • Animal Crossing e+
  • Luigi's Mansion
  • Pokemon XD: Gale of Darkness
  • Star Fox Adventures

 

PlayStation 3

  • Resistance
  • Motorstorm
  • Genji: Days of the Blade
  • Formula One Championship Edition
  • Folklore
  • Hot Shots Golf: Out of Bounds
  • Lair
  • Warhawk
  • The Eye of Judgment
  • Heavenly Sword
  • Uncharted: Drake's Fortune
  • Gran Turismo 5 Prologue Spec III
  • Siren: Blood Curse
  • Afrika
  • LittleBigPlanet
  • SOCOM: U.S. Navy
  • MotorStorm: Pacific Rift
  • Resistance 2
  • White Knight Chronicles
  • Demon's Souls
  • Killzone 2
  • Uncharted 2: Among Thieves
  • InFamous
  • Ratchet & Clank Future: A Crack in Time
  • Gran Turismo 5
  • Heavy Rain
  • EyePet
  • MAG
  • The Last Guardian
  • ModNation Racers
  • White Knight Chronicles 2

Maybe, 1st/2nd party PS3 games are less popular in Japan. But overall, this is a strong support.

PS3 was initially 60k.

Yakuza 3 vs Yakuza 4, FFXIII vs GT5+FFXIV, ToV vs SO4+EoE, RE5 vs LP2+DR2 and there still left other games.