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Forums - Sales Discussion - Wii 10 mln. or PS3 5 mln. in Japan. Who first?

Arius Dion on 28 September 2009

Unbelievable. ioi is very objective when it comes to numbers and just calls them as he sees them. Just because it doesn't go along with your view in fantasy land doesn't make him biased.



Bet between Slimbeast and Arius Dion about Wii sales 2009:


If the Wii sells less than 20 million in 2009 (as defined by VGC sales between week ending 3d Jan 2009 to week ending 4th Jan 2010) Slimebeast wins and get to control Arius Dion's sig for 1 month.

If the Wii sells more than 20 million in 2009 (as defined above) Arius Dion wins and gets to control Slimebeast's sig for 1 month.

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ViolentPhlegm on 28 September 2009

At the very least ioi should be respected for putting his numbers out there.  It is a lot of work to go analyze 20 or so weeks and make  estimates.  I still think he's far too bullish on his Wii expectations and has overlooked some of the challenges it faces this year, but time will tell.



Gearbox on 28 September 2009
ioi said:

Some VERY rough projections - let's see how close I get:


 Wii PS3
27-Sep-09       18,000    8,554,862       30,000  3,623,866
04-Oct-09       45,000    8,599,862       30,000  3,653,866
11-Oct-09       41,500    8,641,362       28,000  3,681,866
18-Oct-09       38,500    8,679,862       25,000  3,706,866
25-Oct-09       36,000    8,715,862       23,000  3,729,866
01-Nov-09       45,000    8,760,862       31,000  3,760,866
08-Nov-09       42,500    8,803,362       27,500  3,788,366
15-Nov-09       55,000    8,858,362       31,000  3,819,366
22-Nov-09     145,000    9,003,362       31,000  3,850,366
29-Nov-09     105,000    9,108,362       38,500  3,888,866
06-Dec-09       95,000    9,203,362       49,500  3,938,366
13-Dec-09     110,000    9,313,362       75,000  4,013,366
20-Dec-09     180,000    9,493,362     175,000  4,188,366
27-Dec-09     215,000    9,708,362     125,000  4,313,366
03-Jan-10     165,000    9,873,362     110,000  4,423,366
10-Jan-10       65,000    9,938,362       47,500  4,470,866
17-Jan-10       50,000    9,988,362       40,000  4,510,866
24-Jan-10       40,000  10,028,362       36,500  4,547,366
31-Jan-10       35,000  10,063,362       33,250  4,580,616

i doubt the wii can pull off that high of holy sales. aside from that i agree with the wii predicitons
for ps3 i think it will be a bit higher during the holiday like. 100k then 180k then 175k then 130k  



ViolentPhlegm on 28 September 2009

@kopstudent89: Yeah, some of the utilities on this site behave erratically sometimes.  Kudos on admitting that you made a slip.  Not everyone does...



ZorroX on 28 September 2009

Buzzi - well, the topic is about who will reach it`s goal first and not WSR effect in long term. :)
2010 and better, well who knows. But it`s only 5k pricecut an NSMB or i miss something fior the 1st half of 2010?

NSMB vs FFXIII, which will draw more new owners in short term, since FFXIII first HUGE PS3 game. Wii already had around 5.

Avinash_Tyagi - i just see the Wii trend, where Wii is selling less year by year in Japan.

ClaudeLv250 - i compared FFXIII(a bigger game) to MH3, which sold over 90K Wii, added Christmas boost, Slim model and New affordable price effect. And i got 220-250k.
Any reason why it should be lower?

Assassin's Creed 2 or Uncharted 2 are more like to sell around 100k +-20k. Whatever, it still will help PS3 to stay above 40k.
And again, for you - i just see the Wii trend, where Wii is selling less year by year in Japan. You probably don`t see that.



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deathgod33 on 28 September 2009

Wii 10 million



 

 

 

 

ZorroX on 28 September 2009

By the end of year:

01st Oct 09 Ninja Gaiden Sigma 2 100k +-20k
01st Oct 09 Shin Sangoku Musou: MultiRaid Special 200k +-50k
15th Oct 09 Uncharted: Ougontou to Kieta Sendan 100k +-20k
29th Oct 09 Bayonetta 200k +-50k
29th Oct 09 Tekken 6 300k +-50k
05th Nov 09 3D Dot Game Heroes 100k +-20k
12th Nov 09 Dragon Ball: Raging Blast 150k +-20k
Nov-Dec 09 Resonance of Fate 150-200k +-20k
Nov-Dec 09 Ratchet & Clank: A Crack in Time 100k +-20k
03rd Dec 09 Assassin's Creed II 100k +-20k
17th Dec 09 Final Fantasy XIII 1.5-2 mln. +-100k

VS

Oct 01 - Wii Fit Plus 1 mln. +-100k
Oct 08 - Valhalla Knights: Eldar Saga 100k +-20k
Oct 15 - Okami 100k +-20k
Ocr 29 - Super Robot Wars NEO, 500k +-100k Sin & Punishment 2 100k +-20k
Nov 05 - Mario & Sonic at the Winter Olympic Games 400k +-50k
Nov 12 - Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles: The Crystal Bearers 350k +-50k
Nov 19 - Samurai Warriors 3 - 500k +-100k
Nov 26 - Puyo Puyo 7, Naruto Shippuuden Ryuuninnki 100k +-20k
Nov ?? - New Super Mario Bros. Wii 2mln. +-200k
Nov/ Dec ?? - Resident Evil: The Darkside Chronicles 400k +-50k
Dec - Tales of Graces 350k +-50k

Actually, only SRW and SW3(depends how well they will perform on Wii) with NSMB could bring new Wii owners. Other game, may sell more, than games from PS3 lineup, but Wii Fit Plus, M&S, FFCC, RE:TDC and ToG will mostly apply to same users, which already bought Wii for previous games of these series.

Same can be said about PS3, which mostly will have it`s sales from FFXIII, then a little Tekken 6 and maybe Bayonetta with RoF.

So, it`s mostly battle against FFXIII and NSMB. And in short term it`s FFXIII who will draw most new users.
Also there will be fight between pricecuts, which one will have more effect on Christmas sales.



saicho on 28 September 2009
ZorroX said:
Buzzi - well, the topic is about who will reach it`s goal first and not WSR effect in long term. :)
2010 and better, well who knows. But it`s only 5k pricecut an NSMB or i miss something fior the 1st half of 2010?

NSMB vs FFXIII, which will draw more new owners in short term, since FFXIII first HUGE PS3 game. Wii already had around 5.

Avinash_Tyagi - i just see the Wii trend, where Wii is selling less year by year in Japan.

ClaudeLv250 - i compared FFXIII(a bigger game) to MH3, which sold over 90K Wii, added Christmas boost, Slim model and New affordable price effect. And i got 220-250k.
Any reason why it should be lower?

Assassin's Creed 2 or Uncharted 2 are more like to sell around 100k +-20k. Whatever, it still will help PS3 to stay above 40k.
And again, for you - i just see the Wii trend, where Wii is selling less year by year in Japan. You probably don`t see that.

we'll know if it's true in a few weeks. And would be a second test of your predictions. (first one is PS3 would stay over 40K for the rest of the year)



MikeB predicts that the PS3 will sell about 140 million units by the end of 2016 and triple the amount of 360s in the long run.

Soundwave on 29 September 2009

I think PS3 will get to 5 first. Final Fantasy XIII + White FF13 PS3 bundle will bring more hardware buyers than New Super Mario Bros. Wii or Wii Fit Plus, even though I think NSMB Wii will sell the most software in the long term.

Nintendo has lost their momentum in Japan with the Wii ... I would not be surprised if the price cut has only a minor impact there. I think the PSP price drop will overshadow the Wii cut in Japan. 

They will have to regroup next year, likely banking on that Wii Vitality Sensor to become the "next" Brain Training type fad.

 



Avinash_Tyagi on 29 September 2009
Soundwave said:

I think PS3 will get to 5 first. Final Fantasy XIII + White FF13 PS3 bundle will bring more hardware buyers than New Super Mario Bros. Wii or Wii Fit Plus, even though I think NSMB Wii will sell the most software in the long term.

Nintendo has lost their momentum in Japan with the Wii ... I would not be surprised if the price cut has only a minor impact there. I think the PSP price drop will overshadow the Wii cut in Japan. 

They will have to regroup next year, likely banking on that Wii Vitality Sensor to become the "next" Brain Training type fad.

 

Actually in japan, FF13 is less likely to bring in new gamers than NSMB, the reason is that people have known since the beginning of this gen that FF13 would be on PS3, and that games like Vesperia have already brought a lot of JRPG fans into the PS3 fold, not to mention that FF13 is a brand in decline.  On the other hand, very few people were expecting a 2D mario until E3, so all those 2D platformer fans who owned a DS, but not a Wii, will be likely to pick up a Wii, not to mention Wii's other games are much stronger than PS3's others games



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)