John Lucas... Your predictions are ridiculous. The demand may be there to do the numbers you're claiming, but the supply is not... Furthermore, it is almost impossible for the WW passing of 360 to coincide with the NA passing in the same month... Right now the Wii is behind 360 by 3.5 million units in NA. To catch it in 5 months (March-July), it would need to OUTSELL 360 by an average of 700K every month, meaning it will need some 875-1000K delivered to NA every month. Supply will NOT be that high all of a sudden. Furthermore, if NA sales WERE that high, it would suggest that Wii would pass 360 WW long before July. The WW lead for 360 is only 3.6 million, and 3.5 million of that comes from NA. If Wii keeps building on its lead over 360 in Japan by 200,000 a month, it would basically have to sell LESS than 360 in Europe for the NA passing of 360 to coincide with the WW passing. Basically the 360 has to keep up with Wii outside of NA for the NA and WW passings of 360 to come around the same. Maybe what you should be predicting is that the European and WW passings of 360 will coincide in July... Since that is actually possible... And you may want to wait for Nintendo's production goal's for Wii... If they're only aiming for 6 million WW from April-Sept, its hard to peg Wii passing 360 in July...

Yeah. I really doubt Wii can even pass 360 before September. Can Wii make up 3.63 million in 6 month (Sept 21 2007)? That would entail outselling 360 600,000 per month. It seems Wii can outsell 360 at least 200,000 in Japan every month, but North America it is only outselling 360 around 100,000 per month (and that is based on only Jan-Feb). Europe/Others it seems Wii it outselling 360 as well, but not at 300,000 per month. I think outselling 360 at 450,000 for most of the year is realistic, 250,000+ in Japan, 100,000+ Americas, Europe 100,000+, putting the catch up date in November. This even accounts for Halo 3, because I think Wii production capacity will be up sometime by/in April (it is possible the increases have already started).

Wii is outselling 360 by 100K every month with major supply constraints. If there were another 100K to be had, they probably would have sold... Nintendo will have to aim for 8 million from April-Sept. for it to catch 360 in that timeframe... Even if we say 360 is at 10 million by the end of March, and it does a huge 600K WW each month April-Sept., its only at 13.6 million at the end of that timeframe. But even if Nintendo delivered half of that hypothetical 8 million to NA, it wouldn't catch 360 in NA.

I love ya Erik but I gotta stick by my predictions. Yeah I'll admit, these predictions are NOT scientifically based. This is puuuuure intuition running these grandiose statements. Unless VGCharts.org is not updating XBox 360's numbers regularly I could have sworn I've seen them at that 9 million range for the past 3 months now. It all depends on how quickly they move those XBox 360 shipments out of the stores. Just got through talking to a friend & he picked up a 360 after constantly not being able to pick up a Wii so there's one. He still wants a Wii though. I see Wii as whitewater rapids, bursting floods from a broken Hoover Dam. I see XBox 360 as ketchup in that Heinz commercial with the bottle. Rushing floods Vs. Bread & Molasses. Sure there both moving but at what rate? What ratio? 5 months? Yeah. 5 months. That's plenty of time at the rate things are going now. Someone I talked to actually is more confident than me. He said JUNE! But I'm not gonna go that far. Remember I said WITHIN July. That could be anywhere from July 1 to July 31. But I DEFINITELY see it in July. I feel that there's gonna be a game that converts people over to the Wii side that further drives the demand & sales. These would be the hard-won converts. A section of so-called hardcore gamers who dismissed and scorned the Wii prior. Something will come out that flips their opinion on the system causing them to come out in droves. Nintendo MUST be understanding this insane demand & working on strongly increasing supply. I think well-timed, well-placed games will happen in precise intervals to keep demand crazy where systems will be bought out upon shelving like we've seen so far. Thereby in doing that all Nintendo would need to do is crank out the system to make ship = sold. Europe & PALS will definitely be caught by July if not sooner. They are already half now. All I know is while XBox 360 sits in 9 million land month after month Wii seems to move to the next million mark as each month passes by. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. No biggie. I'll be here to take my lumps if so. But I know it won't be so. Time is just gonna have to tell the story. We'll just have to wait & see. I'm very confident in my predictions. ESPECIALLY the last two. John Lucas

The two biggest unknowns at this point for the Wii are : 1) Continued demand (doesn't seem to be slowing down yet overall in any territory) 2) April's production increase For some reason, personally, I don't see the new xbox revision making that big of a change in the 360's current sales numbers without a price drop to the current revisions.

Wii is currently selling 30k more than 360 a week in NA, 60k more in Japan, and let's say 40k more in PAL regions each week. Total that's about 500k each month. It'd still take 7 months to catch 360 worldwide, and a lot longer in NA. And that's assuming Wii sales never slow down (can't really go up when you're supply-limited at this point) and 360 sales never pick up (like with the Elite model release or Halo 3 in Sept or something). July is just impossible worldwide, and completely ludicrous for NA. Even July '08 for NA would be a stretch.

I know it's only a matter of time until the wii catches the 360 in sales. But when predicting when it will happen you have to take into consideration that Microsoft is releasing their jacked up version of the 360 late April, the 360 Elite (120 gig hdd, hdmi port and hdmi cable, etc.) There should be a slight surge in 360 sales I would think from this. This is why I've held off getting a 360 so I'll definitely be picking one up. Obviously the wii sales are constrained only by supply or their numbers would be even more impressive. Nintendo needs to get more wii's on the shelves pronto because this level of demand will not last. If people cant find a system, especially after trying for many months, their patience will wear thin and they will seek an alternative in either the 360 or ps3.

I agree and disagree, the population is a difficult thing to predict. With all of Wii's good press and word of mouth, the demand might not fade but only grow more with the supply being out stripped. Basically the theory there is, if it's good, people will buy it. If it's bad.. it'll sit on shelves. Now granted the supply, or lack there of, could hurt Wii but I doubt it as it doesn't seem to hurt the DS too much and Wii seems like it'll be much the same case. As a side question, is there any confirmation on that new 360 cause last I checked there was no actual word of it.

All I have to say is bravo Nintendo, I knew by end of march they would be near 6.5m breaking their goal of 6m. This is simply awesome. I originally thought demand would slow by March, now I see it keeping this pace through May until Nintendo's supply increases to 1.5m/month.

Well done Nintendo. I suspect the Wii is still in 1st gear, and we have only begun to see its real potential (or killer-app potential). The real war is still between the 360 / PS3, and its going to be a long, bloody & fascinating battle.