Wii reaches 6 million in 4 months

[johnlucas]

Erik Aston said: John Lucas... Your predictions are ridiculous. The demand may be there to do the numbers you're claiming, but the supply is not... Furthermore, it is almost impossible for the WW passing of 360 to coincide with the NA passing in the same month... Right now the Wii is behind 360 by 3.5 million units in NA. To catch it in 5 months (March-July), it would need to OUTSELL 360 by an average of 700K every month, meaning it will need some 875-1000K delivered to NA every month. Supply will NOT be that high all of a sudden. Furthermore, if NA sales WERE that high, it would suggest that Wii would pass 360 WW long before July. The WW lead for 360 is only 3.6 million, and 3.5 million of that comes from NA. If Wii keeps building on its lead over 360 in Japan by 200,000 a month, it would basically have to sell LESS than 360 in Europe for the NA passing of 360 to coincide with the WW passing. Basically the 360 has to keep up with Wii outside of NA for the NA and WW passings of 360 to come around the same. Maybe what you should be predicting is that the European and WW passings of 360 will coincide in July... Since that is actually possible... And you may want to wait for Nintendo's production goal's for Wii... If they're only aiming for 6 million WW from April-Sept, its hard to peg Wii passing 360 in July...

I love ya Erik but I gotta stick by my predictions. Yeah I'll admit, these predictions are NOT scientifically based. This is puuuuure intuition running these grandiose statements. Unless VGCharts.org is not updating XBox 360's numbers regularly I could have sworn I've seen them at that 9 million range for the past 3 months now. It all depends on how quickly they move those XBox 360 shipments out of the stores. Just got through talking to a friend & he picked up a 360 after constantly not being able to pick up a Wii so there's one. He still wants a Wii though. I see Wii as whitewater rapids, bursting floods from a broken Hoover Dam. I see XBox 360 as ketchup in that Heinz commercial with the bottle. Rushing floods Vs. Bread & Molasses. Sure there both moving but at what rate? What ratio? 5 months? Yeah. 5 months. That's plenty of time at the rate things are going now. Someone I talked to actually is more confident than me. He said JUNE! But I'm not gonna go that far. Remember I said WITHIN July. That could be anywhere from July 1 to July 31. But I DEFINITELY see it in July. I feel that there's gonna be a game that converts people over to the Wii side that further drives the demand & sales. These would be the hard-won converts. A section of so-called hardcore gamers who dismissed and scorned the Wii prior. Something will come out that flips their opinion on the system causing them to come out in droves. Nintendo MUST be understanding this insane demand & working on strongly increasing supply. I think well-timed, well-placed games will happen in precise intervals to keep demand crazy where systems will be bought out upon shelving like we've seen so far. Thereby in doing that all Nintendo would need to do is crank out the system to make ship = sold. Europe & PALS will definitely be caught by July if not sooner. They are already half now. All I know is while XBox 360 sits in 9 million land month after month Wii seems to move to the next million mark as each month passes by. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. No biggie. I'll be here to take my lumps if so. But I know it won't be so. Time is just gonna have to tell the story. We'll just have to wait & see. I'm very confident in my predictions. ESPECIALLY the last two. John Lucas