And might I add Zucas:

Consoles that tend to start off slow stay the same same slow speed throughout the gen.

lol........Hus and Mars......lol

History can not prove anything about the future.

 It's almost ridiculous that those are based on "what", the dominance of the last two, rather than "how", the factors that led to it.

@W29

I gather from one of Rol's posts that the PS1 sold 8M in the first 18 months of its life but went to sell over 100M. Not all consoles that start off slow keep selling slow.

18 mil in the first year is not bad. Of course the PS3 is going to be looking at about a third of that.

My mistake.  

Depends on what you mean. The PS shipped 2 mil in its first year in Japan, over three its first year in the US, and over 2 million its frst year in Europe. Of that 7 million, it probably sold about 5.5-6 mil.

The PS3 won't meet two of those three sales numbers (we won't know Europe until the spring). And of course, the market's larger this year than it was over ten years ago, and the PS3 doesn't have a lead time over the N64 (though it launched more or less with the Saturn). Instead, it has to play catch up. 

@soriku


Then history says nintendo will lose again. Then history says sony will dominate again.

OT: If sony manages somehow to take the lead again then what?

Killzone sales can't drive PS3 sales for 1 year.

you have to remember that most of the time one console overtook another the only reason the first console was in the lead originally was because it had a head start. The console that launches second always falls into one of two categories:

1) Outsells the first console handily, has huge momentum out of the gate and continues to outsell the first console. By constantly outselling the first console, they pull in more developer support and eventually overtake (SNES vs Genesis, PS2 vs Dreamcast, Wii vs X360)

2) Outsells the first console for a little bit, but then quickly loses momentum. Once the first console starts outselling the second on a regular basis, then it's pretty much all over for the second console, as they are behind and selling slower. Developer support stays with the first console as people back the winning horse and the second one falls further and further behind (N64 vs PS1, GC/Xbox vs PS2, PS3 vs Wii)

Mark my words, the PS3 will finish third this generation.

@soriku

what? how can it?

In the last two generations Nintendo has come 2nd to Sony in number of consoles sold world wide and has never beaten sony in number of consoles sold. Does this prove that the PS3 will have sold more than the wii world wide by the end of the generation?