you have to remember that most of the time one console overtook another the only reason the first console was in the lead originally was because it had a head start. The console that launches second always falls into one of two categories:
1) Outsells the first console handily, has huge momentum out of the gate and continues to outsell the first console. By constantly outselling the first console, they pull in more developer support and eventually overtake (SNES vs Genesis, PS2 vs Dreamcast, Wii vs X360)
2) Outsells the first console for a little bit, but then quickly loses momentum. Once the first console starts outselling the second on a regular basis, then it's pretty much all over for the second console, as they are behind and selling slower. Developer support stays with the first console as people back the winning horse and the second one falls further and further behind (N64 vs PS1, GC/Xbox vs PS2, PS3 vs Wii)
Mark my words, the PS3 will finish third this generation.
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