There was a thread discussing this recently, and if Nintendo is following Blue Ocean Strategy, there will not be a price cut. There might be some different bundles coming, however.

At any rate, I think Nintendo is going to have a massive holiday. I think it will be bigger than last year due to better supply, and better software.

Sounds pretty plausible, maybe even likely.

All I can say is that there must be some rationale as to why Nintendo isn't at all phased by any of this. From what I understand they don't like to fall short of their projections. Perhaps they're expecting that the Wii's first holiday season with no supply constraints will make up for any shortfall, or they simply expect NSMBW, WSR and Wii Fit + to carry the day.

So for your prediction to come true, Nintendo has to have all their cards on the table (unlikely) and they have to be wrong about the market (certainly wouldn't be the first time, but I have a hard time believing that Pachter can read the market better than Nintendo). We know that there are moves Nintendo could make if they wanted to, so it's really more of a question of whether Nintendo is willing to take that 20% hit and how far they're willing to go to reach their projections.

Iwata has claimed that he expects NSMB to sell 10 million by the end of the fiscal year. To me it sounds like he believes that (along with Wii Fit and WSR) is what's going to bring momentum back for Wii.

I'm thinking that it will be both of these things combined that give the Wii its biggest holiday yet.  We'll have to wait and see if it is big enough to hit Nintendo's projections though.

Does anybody actually still listen to Pachter? I mean, the man seems to only ever get it "right" by accident. His track record is far higher for being entirely off. He's certainly shown zero awareness of what Nintendo is doing, given his continual predictions of price drops, officially sanctioned DVD compatibility, and an around-the-corner-any-day-honest WiiHD.

+1

With all due respect to the ts. I think making main topic posts about Patcher should be a bannable offense.

The Gamecube got price cuted too, and that didnt change anything, it was as good as the xbox and the ps2 (it was actually better on my opinion) and yet it didnt boost the sales for more than a couple of months, to this date people who like games like wii sports, wii fit, mario kart and some of the big Nintendo games like Mario, Metroid and Fire Emblem dont have options nearly as good on the HD twins or the PC, why would they buy one then? people dont buy stuff just because they become cheaper, the sales are going to increase but its thanks to all the people holding back their money for the price cut rumors, and the wii still consumes less electricity than both the ps3 slim and the xbox 360, which somehow can make up for the price cut after 2 years of use lol (that last thing was just kidding)

But without outrageous articles as such, we'd have nothing to argue about and the forum will be pretty slow.

I usually TOTALLY disagree with Pachter, but in this case he's dead-on. Sure, it's plausible that Nintendo could come very close to meeting it's targets, but the public perception has gone from the Wii being a decent value to it being clearly overpriced compared to its high-powered competition. Sometimes public perception is just as important. Perception is reality.