Wii Sales Down Nearly 50% In US YOY. Pachter Prediction.

[theRepublic]

famousringo said:

kowenicki said:
@fampousringo

what do you think of my numbers / prediction above your post?

Sounds pretty plausible, maybe even likely.

All I can say is that there must be some rationale as to why Nintendo isn't at all phased by any of this. From what I understand they don't like to fall short of their projections. Perhaps they're expecting that the Wii's first holiday season with no supply constraints will make up for any shortfall, or they simply expect NSMBW, WSR and Wii Fit + to carry the day.

So for your prediction to come true, Nintendo has to have all their cards on the table (unlikely) and they have to be wrong about the market (certainly wouldn't be the first time, but I have a hard time believing that Pachter can read the market better than Nintendo). We know that there are moves Nintendo could make if they wanted to, so it's really more of a question of whether Nintendo is willing to take that 20% hit and how far they're willing to go to reach their projections.

I'm thinking that it will be both of these things combined that give the Wii its biggest holiday yet.  We'll have to wait and see if it is big enough to hit Nintendo's projections though.