Not likely. They'd have to increase sales by 60% year-on-year between September and March to do it, and I don't believe a $100 price cut / new model can do that.

This is of course assuming they don't over-ship a few million PS3s to the official Sony stores :P

I just need to ask, when was god of war 3 a system seller? I mean I totally agree the other titles are crazy system sellers but God of War 3, you might as well say Uncharted 2 or MOG.

Also I believe the west release of FF13 will be April, call it a hunch.

I don't thing PS3 will make it but you gotta like their holiday outlook. Who knows, maybe it'll catch fire like the Wii did these last holidays and just sell boatloads. I admit I don't see it happening cause even huge games like FF13 and GT5 (or even GoW later on) don't have that mass appeal of Wii Fit and MK Wii.

BTW, where did you get the GT5 release date??? Did I miss it?

While speaking of shipment forecasts, and in a tribute to Trestres as it is his favourite subject, Sony really are working towards their forecast. What of Nintendo? I think they have a huge forecast and are doing close to nothing (Capcom helped in Japan and WSR helped a bit WW) but unless the Wii dominates the holidays even more than last year (whcih I don't see happening with WF+ and NSMBWii), they will fall so short it will be an embarassment having to announce it to the investors (someone will lose their job...).

If they did so with games like Animal Crossing and Wii Music, why won't they achieve more success with WF+ and NSMBWii?

Oh you might be wrong with your estimation... GoW III and the upcoming BR Bundle of GoW I & II got a lot of attention during the last days. And everyone knows GoW are killer games which promise hours of fun.

Guess it will be a system seller - GoW 1 sold PS2 2 me... Before this time I sticked to Ninty only - which is over since this generation really started!

A relevant estimation I would say... I don't believe that any games can help supporting such kind of boost.

So even with a GT5 and/or a GOW3, it will be very very difficult to be on target.

@ ATma - I'd put Wii success last holiday on the back of Wii Fit and MK Wii rather than Wii Music and Animal Crossing. Wii Fit + will sell but I don't think it'll move HW as Wii Fit did and NSMBWii is an unknown for me (I absolutely want it but just not sure what it's impact will be on HW, and I am a little concerned by it's late release, September release would have been better to build some good word of mouth for those "casuals").

How about we wait for TGS?
There might still be many suprises, remember how before the slim announcement everybody thought Sony were dillusional because of their estimation? Looking back, we should've realized back then what Sony is planning.
We should do the same here, most of us can't see them selling 13 million in this fiscal year, but, what if they announce a FF7 remake for this holiday season + KH3 and a ND crash bandicoot? will that make the estimation more probable? We can't make true estimation before we have all of the variables, no matter how far fetched they seem.

You also forget about WSR. As for NSMBWii, Nintendo predicted it sales to reach 10M by March 2010.

I don't understand with people believe that games line-up will help selling systems...

Anybody have figures showing significant spikes for any given bundles ?