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Forums - Sales - NSMBWii vs GT5 (AKA I just made a bet, tell me if I'm an idiot)

FreeTalkLive on 04 September 2009
Khuutra said:
FreeTalkLive said:
I think some people are expecting too much from NSMB Wii. Look at how bad Wario did on Wii. Of course, it is multi-player and there doesn't seem to be much competition from other Wii games. I'm not sure if the SSBB crowd will jump on the game or not. If the new TMNT fighting game ends up being good and sales take off, that will likely hurt sales for NSMB Wii.

Personally, I would not have made the bet.

....Say what?

If the folks that play SSBB and Mario Kart Wii because they play great multi-player games start buying the new TMNT fighting game to satisfy their multi-player needs, it may hurt NSMB Wii.  Afterall, the game looks like a repackaged version of the DS game with multi-play added, so that's the main draw.  NSMB Wii will already have strong competition from the other multi-player Mario game coming out at the same time, Mario and Sonic at the Winter Olympics. 



 

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Khuutra on 04 September 2009
FreeTalkLive said:
Khuutra said:
FreeTalkLive said:
I think some people are expecting too much from NSMB Wii. Look at how bad Wario did on Wii. Of course, it is multi-player and there doesn't seem to be much competition from other Wii games. I'm not sure if the SSBB crowd will jump on the game or not. If the new TMNT fighting game ends up being good and sales take off, that will likely hurt sales for NSMB Wii.

Personally, I would not have made the bet.

....Say what?

If the folks that play SSBB and Mario Kart Wii because they play great multi-player games start buying the new TMNT fighting game to satisfy their multi-player needs, it may hurt NSMB Wii.  Afterall, the game looks like a repackaged version of the DS game with multi-play added, so that's the main draw.  NSMB Wii will already have strong competition from the other multi-player Mario game coming out at the same time, Mario and Sonic at the Winter Olympics. 

Yeah, but.... Mario sports gams and Mario platformers don't necessarily have hte same buyers.

TMNT and Mario likely overlap even less. I mean, a lot less. I thought you were kidding about the TMNT thing.



susymar on 04 September 2009

My bet is with Gran Turismo 5.

I cannot see New Super Mario Bros. DS type legs for NSMBWii. The game has more portable appeal. Like Monster Hunter.

My prediction is 3 million for NSMBWii, unless Nintendo bundles something with it.



Khuutra on 04 September 2009
susymar said:
My bet is with Gran Turismo 5.

I cannot see New Super Mario Bros. DS type legs for NSMBWii. The game has more portable appeal. Like Monster Hunter.

My prediction is 3 million for NSMBWii, unless Nintendo bundles something with it.

Can we make a bet out of that?



Arius Dion on 04 September 2009

Congratulations.



Bet between Slimbeast and Arius Dion about Wii sales 2009:


If the Wii sells less than 20 million in 2009 (as defined by VGC sales between week ending 3d Jan 2009 to week ending 4th Jan 2010) Slimebeast wins and get to control Arius Dion's sig for 1 month.

If the Wii sells more than 20 million in 2009 (as defined above) Arius Dion wins and gets to control Slimebeast's sig for 1 month.

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TWRoO on 04 September 2009

Here is a NSMB (DS) comparison to GT4


Japan: http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=Japan&game1=New+Super+Mario+Bros+-+DS&reg2=Japan&game2=Gran+Turismo+4+-+PS2&reg3=All&game3=&weeks=26
(NSMB wins easily)

Americas: http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=America&game1=New+Super+Mario+Bros+-+DS&reg2=America&game2=Gran+Turismo+4+-+PS2&reg3=All&game3=&weeks=26
(GT4 wins just... but bare in mind PS2 was incredibly popular back then, wheras DS in America was a slow starter)

Others: http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=Others&game1=New+Super+Mario+Bros+-+DS&reg2=Others&game2=Gran+Turismo+4+-+PS2&reg3=All&game3=&weeks=26
(GT4 wins easily.. but again NSMB launched before DS was up to speed in Others)

Overall: http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=All&game1=New+Super+Mario+Bros+-+DS&reg2=All&game2=Gran+Turismo+4+-+PS2&reg3=All&game3=&weeks=26

NSMB wins, but mainly because GT5 had a more staggered launch.

-----------------------------------------------------------

So I would say first 26 weeks will probably be about this:

Japan:
NSMBW - 1.5 million
GT5 - 800k

America:
NSMBW - 3 million
GT5 - 1 million

Others:
NSMBW - 2.25 million
GT5 - 2.75 million

-----

So GT5 will reign in Others (though I expect NSMB might catch it eventually) but in America and Japan NSMB should easily triumph.



Vetteman94 on 04 September 2009

That will be close, maybe even too close to actually tell with margins of error.



Slimebeast on 04 September 2009

Mario 2D will stomp GT5 in sales.
(first 26 weeks)



Wii_Master on 04 September 2009
Khuutra said:
susymar said:
My bet is with Gran Turismo 5.

I cannot see New Super Mario Bros. DS type legs for NSMBWii. The game has more portable appeal. Like Monster Hunter.

My prediction is 3 million for NSMBWii, unless Nintendo bundles something with it.

Can we make a bet out of that?

nO i WANT TO BET BLAH PLEASE??? pRETTY pLEASE????LOL :-d



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darthdevidem01 on 04 September 2009

hmmmm
hmmmmmmmmm
hmmmmmmmmmmmm

I think GT5 may edge it out



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey