Personally I think you should start thinking up ideas to humiliate him when the inevitable happens.

I'd bet on him... but really can't say.

Popular series on handheld to console.  No gurantees there.

But Popular series that sicne has developed strong competition and is on a smaller userbase which may or may not be racer driven....

It should be interesting.

I think some people are expecting too much from NSMB Wii. Look at how bad Wario did on Wii. Of course, it is multi-player and there doesn't seem to be much competition from other Wii games. I'm not sure if the SSBB crowd will jump on the game or not. If the new TMNT fighting game ends up being good and sales take off, that will likely hurt sales for NSMB Wii.

Personally, I would not have made the bet.

For all of you who say it'll be "close" ... I don't think it will. I think one of us is going to get DESTROYED. It's just not certain who -- which is the really interesting part.

[edit:  I think it could possibly be close, but more likely NSMBWii leaves GT5 in the dust.  I think it's much less likely that GT5 stomps NSMBWii.  The only way is if NSMBWii somehow fails to find an audience AND Sony does a massive bundling campaign, which I don't think it will (massive that is) because it would take away from regular software sales.]

Congratulations on winning your bet. No, I do not have a time machine, it's called common sense.

....Say what?

I think install base will play a part. I can see NSMBW reaching out to #s of people that GT5 simply can't reach due to install base. There's no saying that GT5 won't be huge but, when being launched onto an install base of, say 24-25 mil there's not much chance for it to do GT3 or 4 #s. Whereas NSMBW "only" has to reach, say 15m Wii users and i think it will be out of GT5's reach. However, in the first 6 months it will be closer i think but i still think it will be NSMBW again because of the userbase, not in the first few weeks of sales but by legs, pulling away after 2-3 months.

Personally I think NSMBWii is going to destroy GT5 but if Sony bundles GT5 and Nintendo doesn't, the fight might get closer but NSMBWii will still win....Although if Nintendo bundled nsmbwii, there is no chance for GT5...

i don't understand you freetalklive. it's a classic mario platformer, it will appeal to people that like classic mario platformers (in the tens of millions). the wario spinofs have never sold that extraordinarily well. even the great sells of ssbb pales in comparison to those classic platformers.

i think the op here made a good bet, i would have taken it.

Bundles aside... New Super Mario Bros should win.

If one is heavily bundled but not the other, then it would probably win for the first 26 weeks, but long term NSMB will likely beat GT5 even if it is bundled.

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I'm not certain, but IMO your side of the bet has the upper hand.