I think some people are expecting too much from NSMB Wii. Look at how bad Wario did on Wii. Of course, it is multi-player and there doesn't seem to be much competition from other Wii games. I'm not sure if the SSBB crowd will jump on the game or not. If the new TMNT fighting game ends up being good and sales take off, that will likely hurt sales for NSMB Wii.
Personally, I would not have made the bet.
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