For me, Japan is the X facter. It was never a huge part in the past couple of yrs for PS360. The big sales come from NA and Others. With the prices now in those 2 regions it will be too close to call. But if FFXIII and GT5 reease in Japan this holiday with bundles, then that will be the tipping point for PS3.
If they don't make Japan release for these titles, then 360 will edge out PS3 over the holiday season. Black Friday week is always crazy for 360.