I hear what youre saying alright.

Its nice to be mentioned by your superiors. 

Project Natal is as much about input manipulation as it is about gaming, in my opinion.

This may mean more for Windows 7 (or 8) than it does for the Xbox 360.

However, success will depend on price and software (games). That is what has always been the case.

Mike from Morgantown

I won't call it an epic fail or anything, but its not going to bring new people to the system. The 360 library, much like the PS3 library, is targeted for the "M Gamer" audience. MS is trying to draw in the casual gamer crowd, which are heavily family oriented. The system does not support a good library for this audience.

Basically think of it this way - The 360 Avatars were MS' answer to Nintendo's Mii characters. It didnt drag people over from the Wii, even though they tried to give a casual feel to their system. What it did provide is current 360 owners with a comparable experience that Wii owners had.

Natal will work the same way - it won't lure in a new audience, but it will provide 360 owners with motion control systems comparable if not better than the Wii. Despite its success with existing 360 owners, Natal will not shed the typecast the 360 had intentionally carved for itself - a core gamer's console. Nothing MS can do at this point will really convince people that it's a family-friendly system. It's impossible to pull off a hairpin turn in an aircraft carrier.

I'm sure that a lot of games won't translate well, but the Wii shows that going in an unconventional direction sometimes can result in a big pay off.  Not often, but sometimes.

Who would have thought that an RTS could be pulled off as elegantly on a controller as Halo Wars did?  But the devs didn't let the nay-sayers stop them, and they ended up with a hit on their hands.

I'd feel more awkward flailing my arms and body around then holding a controller. Natal seems like something I wouldn't do with my door open.

I don't see this being big for PC's either.

I don't see how it improves functionality, or makes using a PC simpler compared to a mouse, or how it is less intimidating than a mouse. A keyboard is intimidating to some because it has a tonne of buttons, the same problem does not exist for a mouse (which even my grandfather got the hang of immediately). Touch screens are really the most simple interface for PC's, and even they haven't taken off except on portables.

Or is it supposed to replace keyboard functionality somehow?

I think we need to look at this another way... it isn't that any one technology or approach will suddenly shift an audience over to the 360... it's about removing barriers to a gradual shift in thinking.  Many parents or grandparents don't buy a 360 because it's for "hardcore/mature" gaming.  If MS provided a number of very compelling games with Natal that really took advantage of the interface (MeSports? <grin>), then people on the edge of buying their first current-gen console might have to think a little harder about choosing the Wii over the 360... "hmmm... both have party-friendly games, both have easy-to-use/intuitive controls).  But MS will have to market it heavily so the word gets out... commercials showing young people at parties playing Natal centric games and having a blast could go a long way towards this goal.  I'm not going to assume
 that every potential console buyer out there is already biased toward one console or another... particularly if they haven't been in the market in a long time and are just getting serious about checking out the current crop of systems.  All it would take Christmas season 2010 would be a few really effective commercials aimed at this market... particularly if MS keeps the cost at $200.

Shit MS is starting to sound like SONY.

I'm extremely skeptical that Natal will be a success. Why will Wii owners want to jump over to Natal? Wii already has the lowest active user base. How many people do they really expect are gonna run out and buy a x360 with Natal? I really don't expect much from it.

The only thing I would interest me in Natal is if they had a P90X game which would keep track of my workouts.

@crumas - The issue is that the audience you're talking about, the ones that would buy "MeSports", already own a Wii. Casuals are one-console type people. They have a Wii, and they'll see the comparison between Nintendo's offerings and the MS one, and be like "EH, that does what the Wii does" and save the money, especially with economic recovery nowhere in sight.

Basically, MS is trying to gain the casual crowd in a time period where the casual crowd has locked down their budgets already. MS was better off waiting for their next gen console. I actually think that Natal was a response to Sony moreso than Nintendo

If the console generation size growns to 200M (last generation it was 175M), Microsoft needs to have a 51.4 percent market share (assuming Sony's market share remains at approximately 22%) to overtake Nintendo. (It currently has a cumulative less than 30% market share, even though it was the only console of the current generation on the market for the first year of the generation).

So unless Microsoft has a long-term plan akin to Sony's 10-year generation, it is doubtful that it can win the contest.

Mike from Morgantown