Will it be Monster Hunter 3, like in Japan?

Metroid: Other M?

Sin and Punishment 2?

Zelda Wii?

I don't see any games a black Wii would be released with this year.  I mean, Silent Hill (which actually looks good) and Dead Space are gritty enough to work, but they're not big enough titles - I'm guessing NOA will follow Japan by releasing it with a blockbuster, system-seller game.

Maybe Wii Sports

Metroid: Other M would be an obvious choice, but I dunno if it will be out in time. I expect a Black Wii to arrive in the US after the christmas season, and as far as i remember, that's when Monster Hunter tri's planned launch for the west is. So it is indeed a possible tie-in/bundle.

If it will be bundled with anything other than WIi sports, then my bet is on Monster Hunter Tri

A MH game may sell 4 million in Japan, but in the states, it's lucky to sell 150k.  Monster Hunter Tri would be a very strange choice for NOA - it's such a small, niche title here.

I think NOA may be waiting for a big 3rd party franchise to go Wii exclusive, think more along the lines of Tekken, Resident Evil 6, Kingdom Hearts.  We may not see a black Wii until xmas 2011.

id love for it to be monster hunter tri, would really help their relationship with capcom

Nintendo are responsible for the promotion and advertisement of Monster Hunter Tri in North America and the PAL regions. That's part of the exclusitivity arrangement. Capcom think that Nintendo have the necessary expertise to make Japan-centric games big in the West, and judging how successful Nintendo have made franchises like Pokemon, Brain Training and Nintendogs in the West, I'd say Capcom are on to something there.

I'm not saying Monster Hunter Tri will become the next Pokemon, but I do think Nintendo will give it enough exposure and promotion to reach Capcom's 2 million WW target.

Personally, I think Other M would be the best game to launch the black Wii with in America. Metroid is biggest in America, and I think plenty of gamers would pick up that bundle.

Metroid: Other M or Monster Hunter Tri would work. They should both be out early next year.

I say it doesn't need a game to launch with it and wii sports is fine.

but, if I had to pick one I would say Resident Evil the Darkside Chronicals.

Hopefully it won't be bundled with a game and will have a price tag of $199 or lower.