@ numonex

The future proof design of the console should be the key, together with excellent exclusive releases.

The PS3 sold 9.7 million units in Q2/Q3 when the PS3 slim was released (*). VGChartz predicts 3.1 million PS3s to have sold to retail in Q4. If so that makes 12.8 million and thus it would only take the PS3 slim another 2.2 million to reach 15 million for a year of sales (or 28% sales increase compared to FY2009 Q1 results, which seems very likely).

* This is a simplified version of course, as in reality the PS3 slim was launched in September 2009, so 2 slower sales months with only fat PS3s available and a huge spike in the last month for that quarter due to the PS3 slim. So in reality 1 year sales will be higher than this for the PS3 slim based on this scenario.

And if we assume VGChartz was horribly wrong and 2.5 million PS3s were sold (still a million more sold to retail than the 360 shipped), it would mean PS3 sales to retail needs to do 2.8 million for FY 2010 Q1 to reach 15 million sales (*). Which seems plausible considering the shortages can be taken care off by then and this would only account for a 43% sales increase compared to FY 2009 Q1, which is roughly in line with the YOY sales increases we are seeing in general.

slowmo said: maverick40 said: This is starting to sound like a bullying thread where two or three hilariously insecure guys are desperately trying to prove each other wrong. Its actually so funny reading all of your comments how petty some of ye are. Well report people if thats the case, your post is just flaming otherwise imo.

Why do people on this site think reporting people is the answer to everything. When someone insults my manhood....ban him. Im not flaming just stating the obvious, from reading this thread it seems that alot of people are picking on one guy. 

I suggest mikeB, you should lock this thread.

maverick40 said: slowmo said: maverick40 said: This is starting to sound like a bullying thread where two or three hilariously insecure guys are desperately trying to prove each other wrong. Its actually so funny reading all of your comments how petty some of ye are. Well report people if thats the case, your post is just flaming otherwise imo. Why do people on this site think reporting people is the answer to everything. When someone insults my manhood....ban him. Im not flaming just stating the obvious, from reading this thread it seems that alot of people are picking on one guy.

Taken from the Forum Rules that some users have read:

Report it when another user insults you instead of insulting them back. If they report you and no one reported their post guess which one of you gets banned? The moderators do not have time to read every post in a thread, so they will often miss things that are not reported.

MikeB isn't a moderator so he cannot lock the thread.

For the 6 months in this time period you had 10 predictions and only one accurate.

jun 07 2007:

 

I think for christmas 2007 the PS3 will show important sales victories in Europe, Australia, Japan (duh!) and other asian countries. For North America I expect sales to go neck to neck, mainly due to the release of Halo 3.

I expect the PS3 to surpass the XBox 360 total hardware sales somewhere late in 2008 and finally when a slimline version appears and the PS2 is retired to dominate significantly over the XBox 360.

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=58804

 

jul 25 2007:

 

My guess (worldwide):

3 years from now (PS2 RIP)

1) PS3
2) Wii
.
.
.
.
3) X360

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=112731

jul 26 2007:

I anticipate mass upgrades from the existing PS2 install base by the time the PS2 is discontinued and a cheaper slimline PS3 is released.

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=114212

 

oct 01 2007:

I think a Wii HD may be released before the Wii reaches a 40 million install base as well.

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=209901

Oct 22 2007:

It looks like we are well underway to see a slimline PS3 being released next year

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=248380

Dec 18 2007:

I think Christmas 2008 will be less big than this year for the Nintendo Wii

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=344291

Dec 17 2007

My prediction for 2008, PS3 sells like hotcakes in Japan compared to 2007 (360 sales fall flat). 360 and PS3 sales gap will narrow further or overtake for North America, Europe PS3 sales will significantly overtake XBox 360 total sales there.

Christmas 2008, PS3 sales starts to beat global sales of the Wii (have been called names for suggesting this with regard to 360 vs PS3 Christmas 2007 sales last year, now people may be a little more open minded).

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=343306

Dec 18 2007

shams:
Only the PS2 can take down the Wii

MikeB
I would think more along the lines of a Slimline PS3, which may not happen in 2008, maybe more likely in 2009 with the PS2 getting retired.

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=344366

Dec 27 2007

I think the Wii will outsell other home consoles for 2008 as a whole, but I think the PS3 will win christmas 2008

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=361540

The only right prediction in this timeframe:

AUG 25 2007

For Japan I see no chance for the XBox 360 to be of any true significance, for Europe and the rest ot the world I expect the PS3 to win overall (even despite a price drop).

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=155202

 

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Your first prediction for a slimline was for 2008 and ofcourse you are eventually right if you keep moving the prediction on a yearly basis.

MikeB said: I have been attacked by many fanboys for my "insane long term outlook" regarding the PS3 here on VGChartz in the past. It now seems like my anticipation for a slimline PS3 by 2009 back in 2006 have been correct and not that insane at all as some made this out to be. A former summary:   MikeB wrote at the start of 2009 (2nd of January): I anticipate around 10 million sales per year on average, until the release of a "PSThree", then I expect the PS3 to sell around 15 million on average. So 2007 + 2008, about 20 million, I anticipate a slimline PS3 to launch somewhere in 2009. http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=1622174     the Slimline PS3 really starts to take off. This basically sums up my past expectations voiced here on VGChartz. I think overall pretty good, apart from HD DVD dying a little quicker than expected. And in another thread I expected an official PS3 price cut for 2008, which did not happen IMO due to the unforeseen weak dollar, high value yen and weak global economy. I expected great success for the Wii before it launched, but the amount has taken me by suprise as well. But they were closer to reality than many other expectations from other people. Things IMO spot on: - PS2 coming out on top for 2006. - PS3 beating the XBox 360 for Christmas 2007, despite the release of Halo 3. - HD DVD losing the high definition format war. - Wii hype cooling down in 2009 (for example Japan, Wii owners complaining about party games, relatively bad 3rd party support, etc). - Wii being popular amongst kids and females (refer to recent Nielsen study regarding demographics) - Early Quick and Dirty 360 to PS3 ports. - PS3 performing roughly on par with the 360 from the year before (actually it performs better, but that's why I stated "roughly"). Remains to be seen: - Slimline PS3 for 2009 (confirmed) and its impact. - Impact of Final Fantasy XIII on the PS3 for Japan.

Oct 22 2007:

It looks like we are well underway to see a slimline PS3 being released next year

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=248380

@ vaio

I already acknowledged (about 10 times) the Nintendo Wii is more an success than I anticipated. But still I believed in its success unlike most others at the time.

Also the PS3 not getting a pricedrop for more than a year probably due to currency issues (cheap dollar, expensive yen) also wasn't anticipated.

This is nothing new and has been talked about endlessly already.

MikeB said: @ vaio I already acknowledged (about 10 times) the Nintendo Wii is more an success than I anticipated. But still I believed in its success unlike most others at the time. Also the PS3 not getting a pricedrop for more than a year probably due to currency issues (cheap dollar, expensive yen) also wasn't anticipated. This is nothing new and has been talked about endlessly already.

None of the links i used talks about what you are commenting here

How about talking how u predicted a slim in 2008 first and then after that failed you made a prediction for 2009?

or

Wii Hd would come when wii reached 40 million?

anyway the point being with my links is that you hardly are good enough in your predictions to make a thread about it and boasting how good you are especially not when one of your main points being that you predicted a slim for 2009 when you first predicted a slim for 2008 and then later changed your tune to 2009.

slowmo said: maverick40 said: slowmo said: maverick40 said: This is starting to sound like a bullying thread where two or three hilariously insecure guys are desperately trying to prove each other wrong. Its actually so funny reading all of your comments how petty some of ye are. Well report people if thats the case, your post is just flaming otherwise imo. Why do people on this site think reporting people is the answer to everything. When someone insults my manhood....ban him. Im not flaming just stating the obvious, from reading this thread it seems that alot of people are picking on one guy.  Taken from the Forum Rules that some users have read: Report it when another user insults you instead of insulting them back. If they report you and no one reported their post guess which one of you gets banned? The moderators do not have time to read every post in a thread, so they will often miss things that are not reported. MikeB isn't a moderator so he cannot lock the thread.

this is realy sad. just stop.

vaio said: MikeB said: @ vaio I already acknowledged (about 10 times) the Nintendo Wii is more an success than I anticipated. But still I believed in its success unlike most others at the time. Also the PS3 not getting a pricedrop for more than a year probably due to currency issues (cheap dollar, expensive yen) also wasn't anticipated. This is nothing new and has been talked about endlessly already. None of the links i used talks about what you are commenting here How about talking how u predicted a slim in 2008 first and then after that failed you made a prediction for 2009? or Wii Hd would come when wii reached 40 million? anyway the point being with my links is that you hardly are good enough in your predictions to make a thread about it and boasting how good you are especially not when one of your main points being that you predicted a slim for 2009 when you first predicted a slim for 2008 and then later changed your tune to 2009.

I said things looked to be on track early 2007. By the end of 2007 IMO things significantly went off track, the economic crisis caused a snowball effect and especially major Japanese consumer electronics companies had to rethink their strategies. The only positive may have been that Toshiba threw the towel in the ring sooner than anticipated regarding the Blu-Ray vs HD DVD format war. IMO a PS3 slim for the holiday season 2008 would have been ideal, sadly the conditions for 2008 were far from ideal. In 2008 I talked about that in discussions.

When the bubble would burst exactly was hard to predict, it could just as well have happened 1 year earlier or a couple of years later.

The original Nintendo Wii still sells very well, but I think a Wii HD supporting both SD and HD doesn't have to much more expensive, but would have been better for the market. I didn't claim it would happen, I said it may happen.

The point of this thread is that my comments weren't nearly as bad as many fans claimed them to be. Especially with regard to technology, but certainly also with regard to sales and market developments.