MikeB's past predictions

[vaio]

MikeB said:

I have been attacked by many fanboys for my "insane long term outlook" regarding the PS3 here on VGChartz in the past. It now seems like my anticipation for a slimline PS3 by 2009 back in 2006 have been correct and not that insane at all as some made this out to be. A former summary:

 

MikeB wrote at the start of 2009 (2nd of January):

I anticipate around 10 million sales per year on average, until the release of a "PSThree", then I expect the PS3 to sell around 15 million on average.

So 2007 + 2008, about 20 million, I anticipate a slimline PS3 to launch somewhere in 2009.

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=1622174

 

 

the Slimline PS3 really starts to take off.

This basically sums up my past expectations voiced here on VGChartz. I think overall pretty good, apart from HD DVD dying a little quicker than expected. And in another thread I expected an official PS3 price cut for 2008, which did not happen IMO due to the unforeseen weak dollar, high value yen and weak global economy. I expected great success for the Wii before it launched, but the amount has taken me by suprise as well. But they were closer to reality than many other expectations from other people.

Things IMO spot on:
- PS2 coming out on top for 2006.
- PS3 beating the XBox 360 for Christmas 2007, despite the release of Halo 3.
- HD DVD losing the high definition format war.
- Wii hype cooling down in 2009 (for example Japan, Wii owners complaining about party games, relatively bad 3rd party support, etc).
- Wii being popular amongst kids and females (refer to recent Nielsen study regarding demographics)
- Early Quick and Dirty 360 to PS3 ports.
- PS3 performing roughly on par with the 360 from the year before (actually it performs better, but that's why I stated "roughly").

Remains to be seen:

- Slimline PS3 for 2009 (confirmed) and its impact.
- Impact of Final Fantasy XIII on the PS3 for Japan.

Oct 22 2007:

It looks like we are well underway to see a slimline PS3 being released next year

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=248380