No NSMBWii won't perform anything like City Folk. Absolutely not.

@NightDragon83: A lot of people use Wii Fit quite often and Wii Sports Resort had the 4th largest opening for a Wii title. The opening is more significant when you take into account the time of year. However it's a long tail title, already showing strong legs and selling slightly above the pace that Wii Fit did.

Those are both good points... but I honestly don't see the majority of Wii-Fit owners purchasing the Wii-Fit + software, just as I don't see the majority of Wii owners in general purchasing Wii Sports Resort.

NSMB Wii on the other hand will have instant name recognition and will appeal to pretty much every Wii owner out there, from the casuals who enjoy the Wii Sports/party games, to the core audiece that loves everything Mario and Zelda, to the older gamers who have fond memories of the classic SMB games but who aren't necessarily big on gaming these days.

Plus, if the first NSMB on DS is anything to go by, this game will be a MONSTER, and on top of that, unlike Wii Fit + and even moreso than WSR, this will be the game that drives Wii hardware sales through the holidays and into the bulk of 2010.

The original Wii Fit is still selling 100,000+ units 1 year after it's release. If Wii Fit Plus is basically just replacing Wii Fit, those 100,000 units will be going to go to Wii Fit Plus. Think of it as the DS lite of the Wii Fit series. It's basically inheriting the sales of the previous installment. Of course, then you add on the amount of people who already own Wii Fit and decide to "upgrade" to Wii Fit Plus. Even if it's a modest number, it's simply adding to the 100,000+ sales that are already there. Also remember that the Balance Board is needed for a host of different games that are being sold on the Wii. As more Balance Board games come out, this demand will only grow. Hence, with every balance board sale, Wii Fit Plus will sell too.

As for Wii Sports Resort, with the numbers we have we can already project that this will sell 9 million by the end of the year. This is because as the holidays get closer the sales will obviously spike. Since it has already sold almost 3 million, it certainly won't be a stretch to get to 9 mil and will probably happen sooner than you think. It's actually a pretty good game too... so I don't think it will have a problem.

NSMB will sell fast and hard. It definetely has the "hardcore nostalgia + casual ease" that will no doubt make it huge. I'm thinking it will sell more than 2 million in the first week as all those nostalgic gamers preorder it. Then it will continue to sell steadily as the casual gamers turn to it more and more.

My predictions:

Wii Fit Plus: 22 million (11 million by end of FY09)

Wii Sports Resort: 20 million (10 million by end of FY09)

New Super Mario Bros Wii: 19.0 Million (12 million by end of FY09)

i don't see alot of people pre-ordering NSMB Wii, i see it more as a "as soon as it comes out people will show interest and buy it" kind of game, do casulas even preorder games?

Lulz.

OT: Wii Sports Resort

I've been putting polls in a lot of my threads, but this poll has been my most successful by far, almost at 100 votes. Wii Sports Resort still has a pretty large lead, but NSMB Wii is catching up a little still.

I think as far as the games go, that Wii Sports Resort (based on the already strong sells) and Wii Fit + (based on it taking over Wii Fit's sales) are the safe bets. NSMB Wii could be huge, but I also think there is a small chance that it will "only" do very well, right around the 10 million mark. The small number of American Preorders in the chart so far, it seems like a game that should be able to do well with preorders, being a known traditional franchise.

If cats and dogs could buy videogames, than Wii Fit Plus would easily win. I mean it is the first video game ever, which can be played by animals ...

I'm pretty excited about the first poll reaching 100 votes in. That said this thread has slowed down a bit, so I've added a new but related poll to the OP.

The problem with AC:CF was that it was mostly a rehashing of previous Animal Crossing games, it featured very little new content, and what was new wasn't very compelling; for example, the touted City aspect, was limited to one street corner you could visit, and it was mostly permanent shops set up by the weekly visitors from the older games.  Essentially, if you played Wild World, you had pretty much played City Folk.

The only problem Nintendo will have with NSMBWii, is that people might think it was a "Wiimake" of the DS game, like City Folk was to Wild World; Nintendo has to make it clear that NSMBWii is NSMB 2, not "NSMB for Wii".  I actually think it is in Nintendo's best interest to rename it "New Super Mario Bros 2" just to drive the point home.

There's a big question not being asked in this thread, which is competition.

Wii Fit Plus is going into a red ocean. EA and Ubisoft are out to take over the fitness market with their Fitness and Your Shape series. EA Sports Fitness is already said to be the best workout on Wii, and these series will explore tons of different exercise possibilities over the next few years.

Wii Sports Resort is going into, let's say, less of a red ocean. Most of the Wii Sports clones basically treated the customers like crap, and with dwindling sales have started to disappear. But there are still some out there which will take WSR sales, most notably Mario and Sonic Winter Olympics.

New Super Mario Bros. Wii is going into a blue ocean. It would be at least until Xmas 2010 that a better 2D platformer could come out. Nintendo probably also realizes that it is their biggest hardware driving game, and so will probably have an all-out advertising blitz for it.

Without competition, I think all three games could be in the 20-30 million range. But with WSR having some of it's sales taken away by other Motion Sports games, and with WFP having I think a lot of it's sales taken away by other Fitness games, I see the order being NSMBW > WSR > WFP.